The point is that under the standard assumptions, the host has to show you a goat: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Standard_assumptions http://e

The point is that under the standard assumptions, the host has to show you a goat: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Standard_assumptions http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Standard_ass... If that assumption isn't true (e.g. maybe the host only shows you a goat when you pick the car), switching isn't necessarily beneficial.