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Ok I'm sold on the idea that Philz has the means to compete against Starbucks in malls across America, but I'm less convinced that third-wave coffee is going to
by Tiktaalik 12y ago
Ok I'm sold on the idea that Philz has the means to compete against Starbucks in malls across America, but I'm less convinced that third-wave coffee is going to be impacted in its core urban market.
When you said that Philz would give "third-wave coffee a run for their money" did you more mean that you're skeptical that Blue Bottle will be able to take their brand national? I agree with that, that that could be hard. I think their best bet for non-urban areas would probably be to closely follow areas where Whole Foods has made inroads. Regarding expansion to urban areas, I wonder if too much good real estate for third wave coffee places is already taken up by local independents.
From what I've seen SF has surprisingly few third wave coffee shops. In Vancouver there are often several Blue Bottle quality independent coffee shops in each neighbourhood. When I saw that Blue Bottle got funding I wondered how successful they'd be in expanding to areas with well established locals. There's really not that much that they do different from others.
- jasonjei 12y agoYeah--I think it'll be hard for third-wave coffee shops to scale. The last number I heard about Blue Bottle was that they were making about $20M. That's a drop in the bucket compared to Starbucks' $15B, and Blue Bottle is very well known. Truth be told, Blue Bottle's coffee and espresso quality has suffered from expansion. I think big cities contribute to plenty of revenue, but Starbucks has built itself as common as a convenience store. That's really hard to compete, even with third-wave and Philz types. Even Tim Horton's revenue is $3B! Hit me up next time you're in San Francisco--I don't think you got a very good tour of coffee here :) Aron Tzimas documents latte art around SF on his Instagram.