You summed up my doubts perfectly, especially the black swan events. The series conveniently puts a quintillion people through dark ages where no major technol

You summed up my doubts perfectly, especially the black swan events. The series conveniently puts a quintillion people through dark ages where no major technological breakthrough is supposed to occur. Psychohistory seems to be based on a more fundamental assumption: technological advancement is not going to change our baseline behaviour. However, Mule aside, the real world shows a small sample of people changing dramatically in only +-200 years. Technology is not only a tool, but an environment that shapes us in an unpredictable way due to physical and biological unknowns. Deviations compound over time and, eventually, will result in the transhumanist ascension. The same deviation makes any long term analysis flawed. I can't see how analyzing a much bigger population would make it any easier, like Boyle's gas law. Hopefully, time will prove me wrong. :)