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Thanks for reminding me about psychohistory and providing an opportunity to reflect about it. I've got a few thoughts. If we are very strict about sticking to

by vdaniuk 12y ago

Thanks for reminding me about psychohistory and providing an opportunity to reflect about it. I've got a few thoughts. If we are very strict about sticking to the initial assumptions, psychohistory as formulated in the Foundation is impossible for several reasons. 1. The population is already aware of the psychohistory (though it may not change anything, see the tragedy of the commons). 2. Human reactions won't remain constant because humans as acting agents won't remain constant(transhumanist future is an inevitability). If we relax our requirements a bit, the answer is quite complex :) At first it seems that the random nature and black swan events (which both are qualities of an immensely complex system) of the human society would mean that psychohistory will stay in the real of fictional sciences. However, it is quite possible that human future may be converging to a specific state, like total human annihilation or transhumanist ascension to a biomachine symbiosis. Both events effectively end the timeline of "mankind's behaviour" but these are sort of singleton hacks, not a working system. What do you think?

Red_Tarsius 12y ago
You summed up my doubts perfectly, especially the black swan events. The series conveniently puts a quintillion people through dark ages where no major technological breakthrough is supposed to occur. Psychohistory seems to be based on a more fundamental assumption: technological advancement is not going to change our baseline behaviour. However, Mule aside, the real world shows a small sample of people changing dramatically in only +-200 years. Technology is not only a tool, but an environment that shapes us in an unpredictable way due to physical and biological unknowns. Deviations compound over time and, eventually, will result in the transhumanist ascension. The same deviation makes any long term analysis flawed. I can't see how analyzing a much bigger population would make it any easier, like Boyle's gas law. Hopefully, time will prove me wrong. :)
- vdaniuk 12y ago
  Agreed, we are witnessing the last decades of "pure" humans and homo sapiens as a species. Someone else will be taking our place real soon and I am really happy about it. The evolution ventures forth.

by vdaniuk 12y ago

Red_Tarsius 12y ago

You summed up my doubts perfectly, especially the black swan events. The series conveniently puts a quintillion people through dark ages where no major technological breakthrough is supposed to occur. Psychohistory seems to be based on a more fundamental assumption: technological advancement is not going to change our baseline behaviour. However, Mule aside, the real world shows a small sample of people changing dramatically in only +-200 years. Technology is not only a tool, but an environment that shapes us in an unpredictable way due to physical and biological unknowns. Deviations compound over time and, eventually, will result in the transhumanist ascension. The same deviation makes any long term analysis flawed. I can't see how analyzing a much bigger population would make it any easier, like Boyle's gas law. Hopefully, time will prove me wrong. :)

vdaniuk 12y ago
Agreed, we are witnessing the last decades of "pure" humans and homo sapiens as a species. Someone else will be taking our place real soon and I am really happy about it. The evolution ventures forth.