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The problem I've seen with estimates is a mix of an inconsistency of ability mixed with a lack of experience in what is being done. For example, I know that I

by dkrich 12y ago

The problem I've seen with estimates is a mix of an inconsistency of ability mixed with a lack of experience in what is being done. For example, I know that I can build a basic CMS system in Rails in a day because I've done it 100,000 times. The details of the text, layout, etc. don't take much more time to develop, so if the requirements are some derivative of that functionality I can give a pretty accurate estimate for how long it will take to build. However once team size and project scope expands, you have Developer A who is great at the assigned tasks and can finish a deliverable scoped at two weeks in two afternoons. Meanwhile, you have Developer B who is not so great at the assigned tasks, and requires a lot of hand-holding and assistance to build a below-par version of what the client expects. This mixture leads to ridiculously inaccurate estimates. What it usually boils down to on these projects is a spreadsheet written by an out-of-touch project manager who has to answer to a senior manager and pulls a timeframe out of thin air. A lot of planning and documenting goes into filling about 2/3 of this timeframe, and then the last 1/3 is spent killing yourself trying to finish a shitload of work in a short time frame to meet the original estimate so that the PM can show that he's really good at estimates! I've been through this process so many times and think about it constantly and have come to the conclusion that it's done this way because quite simply, there is no better way that accounts for the client's demand to have a firm estimate in place.

jakejake 12y ago
I agree. I find the thinking of developers here is all over the place due to the variety of types of work we're all doing. But some people take a hard-line approach to estimates based on the recommendation of others who are working in a totally different environment. If you are in the consulting business and you refuse to give estimates, then you simply will miss out on a huge amount of opportunities. That's just reality. No amount of explaining your methodology is going to get you a large corporate contact if you can't provide a quote. If you have no interest in that type of work, then that's fine, but there are plenty of people who do make their living that way. If you are on a product team, you may have an understanding business who realize the nature of programming. But you still have to work with the company so that press releases, support documentation, marketing, etc can get done. The sales and support teams may need training on features. So there is some degree of estimations that are still needed. As far as other types of ground-breaking experimental research programming - I can't really speak on that subject as far as deadlines because I've never done that.
blt 12y ago
> What it usually boils down to on these projects is a spreadsheet written by an out-of-touch project manager who has to answer to a senior manager and pulls a timeframe out of thin air. A lot of planning and documenting goes into filling about 2/3 of this timeframe, and then the last 1/3 is spent killing yourself trying to finish a shitload of work in a short time frame to meet the original estimate This is an accurate description of my last job using Agile practices. This was a shrinkwrapped product too. No customer demanding estimates, in the midst of fundamental architecture changes, and people still trying to slice-n-dice blue-sky new product development into sprints and user stories. The estimates were a joke and quality suffered because people rushed to get stuff done for the 3 week sprint deadline. All because some manager wanted it. Fucking stupid.
- deleted 12y ago
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- Spearchucker 12y ago
  Maybe my years (I'm over 40). I tend to ask for estimates I didn't create, and call bullshit when I have to. People believe me, because I back my claim up with a lot of experience and anecdote. Also estimation and agile do work, if done with some forethought - I wrote about that here: https://www.wittenburg.co.uk/Entry.aspx?id=db2d81dc-c435-42ca-89a4-48273abd2cf9 https://www.wittenburg.co.uk/Entry.aspx?id=db2d81dc-c435-42c....

by dkrich 12y ago

jakejake 12y ago

I agree. I find the thinking of developers here is all over the place due to the variety of types of work we're all doing. But some people take a hard-line approach to estimates based on the recommendation of others who are working in a totally different environment. If you are in the consulting business and you refuse to give estimates, then you simply will miss out on a huge amount of opportunities. That's just reality. No amount of explaining your methodology is going to get you a large corporate contact if you can't provide a quote. If you have no interest in that type of work, then that's fine, but there are plenty of people who do make their living that way. If you are on a product team, you may have an understanding business who realize the nature of programming. But you still have to work with the company so that press releases, support documentation, marketing, etc can get done. The sales and support teams may need training on features. So there is some degree of estimations that are still needed. As far as other types of ground-breaking experimental research programming - I can't really speak on that subject as far as deadlines because I've never done that.

blt 12y ago

> What it usually boils down to on these projects is a spreadsheet written by an out-of-touch project manager who has to answer to a senior manager and pulls a timeframe out of thin air. A lot of planning and documenting goes into filling about 2/3 of this timeframe, and then the last 1/3 is spent killing yourself trying to finish a shitload of work in a short time frame to meet the original estimate This is an accurate description of my last job using Agile practices. This was a shrinkwrapped product too. No customer demanding estimates, in the midst of fundamental architecture changes, and people still trying to slice-n-dice blue-sky new product development into sprints and user stories. The estimates were a joke and quality suffered because people rushed to get stuff done for the 3 week sprint deadline. All because some manager wanted it. Fucking stupid.

deleted 12y ago
[deleted]
Spearchucker 12y ago
Maybe my years (I'm over 40). I tend to ask for estimates I didn't create, and call bullshit when I have to. People believe me, because I back my claim up with a lot of experience and anecdote. Also estimation and agile do work, if done with some forethought - I wrote about that here: https://www.wittenburg.co.uk/Entry.aspx?id=db2d81dc-c435-42ca-89a4-48273abd2cf9 https://www.wittenburg.co.uk/Entry.aspx?id=db2d81dc-c435-42c....