5 ms·

A mix-up I often see in these discussions is the difference between "hard" and "takes effort". People say all the time "it's not as simple as kids/you/... think

by sgift 12y ago

A mix-up I often see in these discussions is the difference between "hard" and "takes effort". People say all the time "it's not as simple as kids/you/... think" in the sense of "it's hard" when it is really "it would take a big effort", e.g. Flying to another star system in one lifetime? Hard. You have to take some laws of physics (or rather our understanding of them) head-on. Solving humanities part of the climate change problem? That will take a really big effort convincing everyone to be part of it, then doing all the necessary changes on infrastructure and so on, but it is not hard. The fundamental problems are solved, no R&D necessary, just doing. (R&D and new solutions could make it possible to do the job with less effort, but they are not strictly necessary)

kybernetikos 12y ago
Within my lifetime, inventions requiring new science have had a much better chance of changing the world than changes requiring solving social coordination problems. The fact that so many startups are now "full stack" reflects the difficulty of solving even extremely simple social coordination problems.
- sgift 12y ago
  That's a good point which reflects the prosperous times we live in. Looking back at history these times seem to be the exception rather than the rule. In the end I fear that we cannot hope that "science will solve all of our problems", because science by its very nature is "hard". There are no guarantees that things will work out and we could very well land again in a period of time where science hits only dead-ends for many years. In that case we'd either live without any progress or we invest effort into using the solutions we already have.
karmacondon 12y ago
To significantly halt climate change using today's technology would cause misery on a scale unprecedented in human history. To switch from fossil fuels to current solar energy would require a massive amount of land use. A huge portion of the world would have to be covered with solar cells to match the output from fossil fuelds. Do you know what that would do to real estate prices? Buildings that are horizontal would have to become vertical, and that money has to come from somewhere. Rents would double. Companies would have to offset the costs and some people would get fired, and most would have their wages or benefits frozen. The trucks, ships and planes that pollute by shipping goods would have to be converted to today's electric engines. That would increase the cost of everything that everyone buys by 15-20%. From a book on amazon to a pair of jeans from the now 10 story shopping mall. Everyone would have to get their personal vehicles refitted or buy new ones, incurring even more costs. Every business would see its margins shrink further, driving wages down even more. Producing and transporting meat is one of the largest contributors to climate change. The price of a hamburger at McDonalds would have to go from $2 to $20. Children need protein while in their developmental years, but it would become almost impossible for most families to afford. An entire generation raised on soy paste. Globally, everyone would feel extreme financial pressure as the businesses they worked for AND their customers all make less money while paying more for everything they consume. There would be riots and revolutions as people took to the streets to feed their starving families. Endless foreign and civil wars, immeasurable suffering and loss of life. And for what? For what? Something that might or might not happen 100 years from now? As adults, it's our job to keep this horrible future from unfolding. The responsible thing to do is invest in education and infrastructure, slowly and carefully, to keep those kids writing essays from growing up in a terrible world. That's why we're the adults, because we understand the difference between fantasy and reality, what's possible and what's practical. If history has taught one lesson, it's "Never underestimate the pace of technological change." There have been Malthusian predictions before and there will be again. They never come true because technology solves problems in ways that we can't anticipate. It's our job to keep the world running while we wait patiently for a technological solution to climate change to present itself. We can't imagine what it will be today, but it will happen sooner than we think. Progress will take us to other star systems, too. Eventually.
- sgift 12y ago
  I think we have to agree to disagree here as I share neither your pessimism that we need a "Great leap forward"-style program to stop climate change with our current technologies nor your optimism that science will solve all of our problems fast enough (see my answer to kybernetikos for more on that). Fast enough is the main point here. Yes, technology will solve all of our problems in the long run, but that's not helpful if humanity doesn't exist long enough for that time to come. What I can agree with: If we take your assumptions as given that using our current technology for the task leads to all the things you've described (massive use of land we could use for other things, sharp rent increases, sharp price increases on food, wage depression and so on) then your conclusions are certainly correct and we shouldn't think about doing any of that, because the immediate concerns are far more pressing than any of the "the future could be shitty. Or not."-problems. I just don't share them, so I think we have a fundamentally different set of "basic believes" which will always bring us to different conclusions in the end. On the other hand I would certainly love to read a few of the sources which brought you to your conclusions on our current technology level and the consequences of using it to stop our part in climate change. I'm always open to changing my opinion if new facts warrant it.
  - TeMPOraL 12y ago
    Regarding land use, with current technology level we would do much better if we go nuclear - it's safe, clean and much, much more space-efficient.

by sgift 12y ago

kybernetikos 12y ago

Within my lifetime, inventions requiring new science have had a much better chance of changing the world than changes requiring solving social coordination problems. The fact that so many startups are now "full stack" reflects the difficulty of solving even extremely simple social coordination problems.

sgift 12y ago
That's a good point which reflects the prosperous times we live in. Looking back at history these times seem to be the exception rather than the rule. In the end I fear that we cannot hope that "science will solve all of our problems", because science by its very nature is "hard". There are no guarantees that things will work out and we could very well land again in a period of time where science hits only dead-ends for many years. In that case we'd either live without any progress or we invest effort into using the solutions we already have.

karmacondon 12y ago

To significantly halt climate change using today's technology would cause misery on a scale unprecedented in human history. To switch from fossil fuels to current solar energy would require a massive amount of land use. A huge portion of the world would have to be covered with solar cells to match the output from fossil fuelds. Do you know what that would do to real estate prices? Buildings that are horizontal would have to become vertical, and that money has to come from somewhere. Rents would double. Companies would have to offset the costs and some people would get fired, and most would have their wages or benefits frozen. The trucks, ships and planes that pollute by shipping goods would have to be converted to today's electric engines. That would increase the cost of everything that everyone buys by 15-20%. From a book on amazon to a pair of jeans from the now 10 story shopping mall. Everyone would have to get their personal vehicles refitted or buy new ones, incurring even more costs. Every business would see its margins shrink further, driving wages down even more. Producing and transporting meat is one of the largest contributors to climate change. The price of a hamburger at McDonalds would have to go from $2 to $20. Children need protein while in their developmental years, but it would become almost impossible for most families to afford. An entire generation raised on soy paste. Globally, everyone would feel extreme financial pressure as the businesses they worked for AND their customers all make less money while paying more for everything they consume. There would be riots and revolutions as people took to the streets to feed their starving families. Endless foreign and civil wars, immeasurable suffering and loss of life. And for what? For what? Something that might or might not happen 100 years from now? As adults, it's our job to keep this horrible future from unfolding. The responsible thing to do is invest in education and infrastructure, slowly and carefully, to keep those kids writing essays from growing up in a terrible world. That's why we're the adults, because we understand the difference between fantasy and reality, what's possible and what's practical. If history has taught one lesson, it's "Never underestimate the pace of technological change." There have been Malthusian predictions before and there will be again. They never come true because technology solves problems in ways that we can't anticipate. It's our job to keep the world running while we wait patiently for a technological solution to climate change to present itself. We can't imagine what it will be today, but it will happen sooner than we think. Progress will take us to other star systems, too. Eventually.

sgift 12y ago
I think we have to agree to disagree here as I share neither your pessimism that we need a "Great leap forward"-style program to stop climate change with our current technologies nor your optimism that science will solve all of our problems fast enough (see my answer to kybernetikos for more on that). Fast enough is the main point here. Yes, technology will solve all of our problems in the long run, but that's not helpful if humanity doesn't exist long enough for that time to come. What I can agree with: If we take your assumptions as given that using our current technology for the task leads to all the things you've described (massive use of land we could use for other things, sharp rent increases, sharp price increases on food, wage depression and so on) then your conclusions are certainly correct and we shouldn't think about doing any of that, because the immediate concerns are far more pressing than any of the "the future could be shitty. Or not."-problems. I just don't share them, so I think we have a fundamentally different set of "basic believes" which will always bring us to different conclusions in the end. On the other hand I would certainly love to read a few of the sources which brought you to your conclusions on our current technology level and the consequences of using it to stop our part in climate change. I'm always open to changing my opinion if new facts warrant it.
- TeMPOraL 12y ago
  Regarding land use, with current technology level we would do much better if we go nuclear - it's safe, clean and much, much more space-efficient.