3 ms·
> So, scientists can't yet get the weather forecast correct for even part of an afternoon, in a single city... but they've got the next 1,000 years figured out?
by emergentcypher 12y ago
> So, scientists can't yet get the weather forecast correct for even part of an afternoon, in a single city... but they've got the next 1,000 years figured out? Let me know how that works out.
If I can't predict what side of the coin will be facing up on the tenth flip, how can I possibly expect to be able to predict the average of ten years of coin flipping?
- pyre 12y agoOr: If I can't predict how many points a specific player will score in during an arbitrary period of a specific game, then how can I expect to be able to predict whether or not the team will make the post-season playoffs?
- SeanDav 12y agoThe difference between your example and the Weather/Climate example is that coin tosses are based on a mathematically random premise, climate change assumptions are based on giant, complex models with a large number of subjective inputs, many of which can trigger significant or subtle changes in outputs. A climate model is not proof and can not (yet?) be reasoned about mathematically.