5 ms·

Tesla swimming in debt with a negative $455M cash flow

12 points by DLay 12y ago

PhantomGremlin 12y ago
Today's stock reaction proves that nobody cares. Tesla is still a beloved cult stock. Its current valuation isn't supported by any rational estimates of its growth and future profitability. Here's another example of Musk's delusion, from the conference call:[1] If you take this year's revenue, around $6 billion or thereabouts, and if we are able to maintain a 30% growth rate for 10 years, add to your 10% profitability number, and have a 20 P/E, our market cap would basically be the same as Apple's is today. Yeah, good luck with that. [1] http://www.thestreet.com/story/13044398/1/elon-musk-just-made-a-staggering-comment-comparing-tesla-to-apple.html http://www.thestreet.com/story/13044398/1/elon-musk-just-mad...
- Natsu 12y ago
  I think some people are investing not because they want to make a ton of money off of Tesla, but because they want the ventures that company is attempting to succeed.
  - toomuchtodo 12y ago
    raises hand I bought quite a bit of TSLA when they went IPO in 2008. I didn't buy it to get rich. I bought it because I want Tesla to succeed.
  - greglindahl 12y ago
    You're right; the question is, are there enough people doing that to distort the stock price?
- greglindahl 12y ago
  So you've already forgotten all the times that Elon has mentioned that Tesla's stock is probably overvalued?! Wow. Short memory. Actually, cherry picking.
- PhantomGremlin 12y ago
  You downvoters have only proven my point that Tesla is a cult stock. Nobody owning or admiring a cult stock ever wants to be told it's a cult stock. May I remind you that Musk has a long way to go before his legacy matches that of St. Steven of Apple. Last September Musk said "I think our stock price is kind of high right now, to be totally honest". The stock eventually fell from $279 to $203 today. So now Musk says he thinks his current market cap is only 4% of what it could be in a decade. Really? Quite a change from "kind of high". His market cap needs to compound at about 45% a year to achieve that. That puts it into the top 1% of all stock bargains. Don't downvote me. That's too easy. Instead, go buy the stock. Buy $35,000 of it. If Musk is right, your stock will be worth $1,000,000 in ten years. After all, Musk also said "I am hopeful that we can do this without any significant dilution to the company".
  - Natsu 12y ago
    It's sort of like a lottery ticket, but people are buying the stock in the hopes of awesome new technology, rather than merely hoping to get rich. As long as you buy only what you can afford to lose, it's probably worth it for some of us. There aren't a whole lot of companies willing to even try really ambitious projects like they do.
    - PhantomGremlin 12y ago
      You make two good points I hadn't really considered. "Lottery ticket" resonates with me since we just recently had a big discussion about playing Powerball. But also (sad for us in general) most companies don't try to do really ambitious stuff. Established companies don't want to rock the boat (The Innovator's Dilemma), startups just want to survive long enough to get noticed and acquired. Of course, there are exceptions. I think Bill Gates really did have a vision of getting a computer running Microsoft software into everyone's house. And there's biotech. A lot of what they do is bet-the-company moonshot stuff. Finding a cure for cancer, that's pretty ambitious. I'd like to invest there, but I know absolutely nothing about the field. You've really helped me understand why people are pulling for Musk and Tesla.
  - userulluipeste 12y ago
ciconia 12y ago
What a ridiculous article! This is a "last warning" from Cramer? I bet Musk is really shaking in his boots now.
Shivetya 12y ago
There is something seriously wrong at Tesla and they are doing their best to pretend otherwise. Their failure to execute in China is a monumental failure, not a small one. Their blaming delivers on vacation shows a complete lack of competence

12 points by DLay 12y ago

Today's stock reaction proves that nobody cares. Tesla is still a beloved cult stock. Its current valuation isn't supported by any rational estimates of its growth and future profitability. Here's another example of Musk's delusion, from the conference call:[1] If you take this year's revenue, around $6 billion or thereabouts, and if we are able to maintain a 30% growth rate for 10 years, add to your 10% profitability number, and have a 20 P/E, our market cap would basically be the same as Apple's is today. Yeah, good luck with that. [1] http://www.thestreet.com/story/13044398/1/elon-musk-just-made-a-staggering-comment-comparing-tesla-to-apple.html http://www.thestreet.com/story/13044398/1/elon-musk-just-mad...

Natsu 12y ago
I think some people are investing not because they want to make a ton of money off of Tesla, but because they want the ventures that company is attempting to succeed.
- toomuchtodo 12y ago
  raises hand I bought quite a bit of TSLA when they went IPO in 2008. I didn't buy it to get rich. I bought it because I want Tesla to succeed.
- greglindahl 12y ago
  You're right; the question is, are there enough people doing that to distort the stock price?
greglindahl 12y ago
So you've already forgotten all the times that Elon has mentioned that Tesla's stock is probably overvalued?! Wow. Short memory. Actually, cherry picking.
PhantomGremlin 12y ago
You downvoters have only proven my point that Tesla is a cult stock. Nobody owning or admiring a cult stock ever wants to be told it's a cult stock. May I remind you that Musk has a long way to go before his legacy matches that of St. Steven of Apple. Last September Musk said "I think our stock price is kind of high right now, to be totally honest". The stock eventually fell from $279 to $203 today. So now Musk says he thinks his current market cap is only 4% of what it could be in a decade. Really? Quite a change from "kind of high". His market cap needs to compound at about 45% a year to achieve that. That puts it into the top 1% of all stock bargains. Don't downvote me. That's too easy. Instead, go buy the stock. Buy $35,000 of it. If Musk is right, your stock will be worth $1,000,000 in ten years. After all, Musk also said "I am hopeful that we can do this without any significant dilution to the company".
- Natsu 12y ago
  It's sort of like a lottery ticket, but people are buying the stock in the hopes of awesome new technology, rather than merely hoping to get rich. As long as you buy only what you can afford to lose, it's probably worth it for some of us. There aren't a whole lot of companies willing to even try really ambitious projects like they do.
  - PhantomGremlin 12y ago
    You make two good points I hadn't really considered. "Lottery ticket" resonates with me since we just recently had a big discussion about playing Powerball. But also (sad for us in general) most companies don't try to do really ambitious stuff. Established companies don't want to rock the boat (The Innovator's Dilemma), startups just want to survive long enough to get noticed and acquired. Of course, there are exceptions. I think Bill Gates really did have a vision of getting a computer running Microsoft software into everyone's house. And there's biotech. A lot of what they do is bet-the-company moonshot stuff. Finding a cure for cancer, that's pretty ambitious. I'd like to invest there, but I know absolutely nothing about the field. You've really helped me understand why people are pulling for Musk and Tesla.
- userulluipeste 12y ago

ciconia 12y ago

What a ridiculous article! This is a "last warning" from Cramer? I bet Musk is really shaking in his boots now.

Shivetya 12y ago

There is something seriously wrong at Tesla and they are doing their best to pretend otherwise. Their failure to execute in China is a monumental failure, not a small one. Their blaming delivers on vacation shows a complete lack of competence