Well thought-out post, however, your math is singularly reliant on the 30,000$ price tag for the battery and although you did list the source, it's accuracy is

Well thought-out post, however, your math is singularly reliant on the 30,000$ price tag for the battery and although you did list the source, it's accuracy is in some doubt. First of all, you can pre-buy a replacement Tesla battery for 12,000$(source: found in your same link [1]), secondly, the information is old. I don't think there is any doubt that the number has come down significant. I'm sure you are aware that Tesla is building out a huge battery plant, significantly increasing lithium batter production ability, this will absolutely bring batter prices down. I would be extremely surprised if their own internal numbers show a pay-off time of longer than 3 to 5 years. It's not like Tesla doesn't have people who get into the numbers, as the numbers are the only thing that is going to sell.