4 ms·

> It's a game of chicken It's a game of Germany getting fed up with paying for the rest of the EU. I think it's a safe bet that if Greece is going to show a mi

> It's a game of chicken It's a game of Germany getting fed up with paying for the rest of the EU. I think it's a safe bet that if Greece is going to show a middle finger to the EU, the EU will have no choice but to reciprocate. Spain and Portugal were in a similar situation as Greece, but if you are to believe Frau Merkel, the austerity policy is working for them and they are recovering well.

moe 12y ago
but if you are to believe Frau Merkel ... [Spain and Portugal] are recovering well Spain has an unemployment rate[1] of 24%. Is it optimism or cynicism to call that "recovering well"? [1] http://countryeconomy.com/unemployment/spain http://countryeconomy.com/unemployment/spain
- huhtenberg 12y ago
  > 24% Woah. That's just ... insane.
  - moe 12y ago
    Insane? But Merkel says they are recovering well! Oh and for under 25yr olds the rate is... 50%. [1] http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/5908da36-db09-11e3-8273-00144feabdc0.html#slide0 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/5908da36-db09-11e3-8273-00144feabd...
    - pvaldes 12y ago
      Yeah, don't really want to play the nazi card, here, but I can't help to remember "Arbeit macht frei" when I hear that "Spain, good boy!, good boy!, keep on starving and some wonderful will happen, tomorrow, or maybe in forty years, trust us..." Nobody thinks here that we are "recovering well". This is not only about the rate of unemployed, you need also to think about the quality of the new jobs. An then you need to think also about different types of new poors. About 4 millions of spaniards could not afford an accurate household heating in 2012. ACA estimates that beetween 2400 and 9600 people have died prematurely in Spain each year those last years because, after the banks shamelessly steal all his life savings, they can't pay for home heating. More people that the victims of car accidents. Don't worry, Angela, just old useless people. http://unaf.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/estudio-de-pobreza-energ%C3%A9tica-en-espa%C3%B1a-2014.pdf http://unaf.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/estudio-de-pobrez...
      - Ntrails 12y ago
        "Shamelessly steal all his life savings". I'd like to hear exactly what you mean by this. On face value I'm assuming it's just hyperbole - complaints about inflation, or investments in property/equity which crashed etc.
        pvaldes 12y ago
        History of a huge scam, that maybe not all people out of Spain know: Actors: Rodrigo Rato, managing director of international monetary fund between 2004 and 2007. President of Bankia 2010. Goes public to stock exchange hiding a huge deficit to the investors whereas telling everybody that the bank is doing lots of money. The bank must be rescued later with 10 Billion Euro from the spanish workers I think. Bankia selled also preference shares to blind people, illiterates and old retired people. Most of them lost all his money and a lot of them lost also his houses. Miguel Blesa: A personal old friend of Jose María Aznar. Politic and President of the supervisory board of Caja Madrid, that crashes and became Bankia. and many others of course... http://wolfstreet.com/2014/12/14/spanish-judge-exposes-too-big-to-fail-bank-robbery http://wolfstreet.com/2014/12/14/spanish-judge-exposes-too-b... Bloomberg Businessweek listed Rato as the worst CEO in 2012 http://www.publico.es/actualidad/siete-casos-mas-sangrantes-estafa.html http://www.publico.es/actualidad/siete-casos-mas-sangrantes-... Meanwhile in Bankia, Blesa, Rato and other top officials where spending and charging to Bankia millions of public money to black credit cards given by himselves. The money from the spaniards was spent in gas, clubs, skying, wine, jewels, expensive clocks, restaurants... And retired people were informed that his life-savings just dissapear "im-so-sorry-sob-sob". http://www.eldiario.es/gastos_tarjetas_black/grafico-gastos-opacos-tarjetas-black_0_314269022.html http://www.eldiario.es/gastos_tarjetas_black/grafico-gastos-... http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/oct/09/former-caja-directors-accused-credit-card-misuse-bankia http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/oct/09/former-caja-...
  - deleted 12y ago
    [deleted]
- bmelton 12y ago
  > Is it optimism or cynicism to call that "recovering well"? Probably a bit of both. Depending on when you look at the data from, it's a definite improvement from their peak unemployment rate of 26.94%. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/charts/spain-unemployed-persons.png?s=spainuneper http://www.tradingeconomics.com/charts/spain-unemployed-pers... Long and short of it though, the economy is growing, though very slowly. Economic growth, even small amounts, quarter over quarter, is much more cause for optimism than economic decline, which was the course it had been on up til 2013 Q1.
- chez17 12y ago
  It bothers me when people post statistics out of context. If the unemployment rate was 48% and now it's 24% that's an amazingly successful policy to cut unemployment by half. If it was 12% and now it's 24% clearly something is wrong if unemployment doubles. Honest question, what is going through your mind when you post a statistic like that with absolutely context? How, to you, does this prove a point one way or the other?
  - deleted 12y ago
    [deleted]
  - TheOtherHobbes 12y ago
    Here's a graph of the change: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fvsTRmORSVI/T5qPyXygwNI/AAAAAAAAEUc/Kp9sIahSR10/s1600/Spain%2Bunemployment.png http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fvsTRmORSVI/T5qPyXygwNI/AAAAAAAAEU... It's not hard to find the facts and the context here, so your comment makes no sense whatsoever.
  - glenstein 12y ago
    I think the context in this case is the usual, everyday awareness of typical unemployment rates, which politically conscious individuals tend to have. For instance, at the very least people probably have heard that U.S. unemployment has been anywhere from 9% to 5% in recent years. And we know that things were pretty bad when unemployment was 9%, and surely 24% is a lot worse than 9%. If you were good at U.S. history, you might recall that our great depression had similar unemployment rates. There's just about no context where that's a good number.
    - eru 12y ago
      I grew up in parts of East Germany that had 27% for years. Not pretty.
meric 12y ago
If Greece submits to an austerity plan, it loses because its people will suffer as it is doing so at this present time. If Greece defaults on it's obligations, there will budget surpluses immediately to spend on services. In the short term they would suffer some financial difficulty from not being able to access world credit markets but in the long term the economy will recover much more quickly. If Greece defaults, they can lose, or they can win. The only danger would be an invading EU/NATO army coming to confiscate their assets. The austerity plan works for the EU, of course.
- eru 12y ago
  > The only danger would be an invading EU/NATO army coming to confiscate their assets. I'm willing to bet on 50 to 1 odds that there will be no invasion. (Up to, say, 1000 USD exposure on my side.)
  - TheOtherHobbes 12y ago
    The usual play is to stage a convenient military coup to 'bring back order and security', with leaders who then loot the country. No invasion necessary. I have huge respect for Varoufakis, but I hope he realises he is dealing with very dangerous thugs in very expensive suits, and not reasonable people.
rtpg 12y ago
>It's a game of Germany getting fed up with paying for the rest of the EU fed up with giving out loans that end up back in Germany due to how much Germany exports to them as well... Germany's obligations on austerity politics is what put Spain and Portugal in this mess to begin with. There's absolutely no economic argument for austerity in a 2008-style situation. People stopped spending, so the solution is for the government to stop spending as well?
barking 12y ago
>It's a game of Germany getting fed up with paying for the rest of the EU. The eurozone economy has been largely run in a way that benefits germany. When germany needs low interest rates the euro zone gets them and to hell with whether that suits Spain or Greece or Italy. And the bailouts that were given are not handouts, they are loans. If a bank lends you money they are not 'paying for you'.
- eru 12y ago
  Unless you are never giving the money back. (Or you get the money at below-market rates. Then they are effectively paying you the difference.)
- fit2rule 12y ago
  But .. why shouldn't the most productive member of the Eurozone get what it wants, while the least productive members of the Eurozone, get whats left? Economics 101: if you reward bad behaviour, you get more bad behaviour.
fapi1974 12y ago
I think the Iceland example is instructive. They told everyone who was not their citizens to piss off, had pain for a year or two, and are now fine.

moe 12y ago

but if you are to believe Frau Merkel ... [Spain and Portugal] are recovering well Spain has an unemployment rate[1] of 24%. Is it optimism or cynicism to call that "recovering well"? [1] http://countryeconomy.com/unemployment/spain http://countryeconomy.com/unemployment/spain

huhtenberg 12y ago
> 24% Woah. That's just ... insane.
- moe 12y ago
  Insane? But Merkel says they are recovering well! Oh and for under 25yr olds the rate is... 50%. [1] http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/5908da36-db09-11e3-8273-00144feabdc0.html#slide0 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/5908da36-db09-11e3-8273-00144feabd...
  - pvaldes 12y ago
    Yeah, don't really want to play the nazi card, here, but I can't help to remember "Arbeit macht frei" when I hear that "Spain, good boy!, good boy!, keep on starving and some wonderful will happen, tomorrow, or maybe in forty years, trust us..." Nobody thinks here that we are "recovering well". This is not only about the rate of unemployed, you need also to think about the quality of the new jobs. An then you need to think also about different types of new poors. About 4 millions of spaniards could not afford an accurate household heating in 2012. ACA estimates that beetween 2400 and 9600 people have died prematurely in Spain each year those last years because, after the banks shamelessly steal all his life savings, they can't pay for home heating. More people that the victims of car accidents. Don't worry, Angela, just old useless people. http://unaf.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/estudio-de-pobreza-energ%C3%A9tica-en-espa%C3%B1a-2014.pdf http://unaf.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/estudio-de-pobrez...
    - Ntrails 12y ago
      "Shamelessly steal all his life savings". I'd like to hear exactly what you mean by this. On face value I'm assuming it's just hyperbole - complaints about inflation, or investments in property/equity which crashed etc.
      - pvaldes 12y ago
        History of a huge scam, that maybe not all people out of Spain know: Actors: Rodrigo Rato, managing director of international monetary fund between 2004 and 2007. President of Bankia 2010. Goes public to stock exchange hiding a huge deficit to the investors whereas telling everybody that the bank is doing lots of money. The bank must be rescued later with 10 Billion Euro from the spanish workers I think. Bankia selled also preference shares to blind people, illiterates and old retired people. Most of them lost all his money and a lot of them lost also his houses. Miguel Blesa: A personal old friend of Jose María Aznar. Politic and President of the supervisory board of Caja Madrid, that crashes and became Bankia. and many others of course... http://wolfstreet.com/2014/12/14/spanish-judge-exposes-too-big-to-fail-bank-robbery http://wolfstreet.com/2014/12/14/spanish-judge-exposes-too-b... Bloomberg Businessweek listed Rato as the worst CEO in 2012 http://www.publico.es/actualidad/siete-casos-mas-sangrantes-estafa.html http://www.publico.es/actualidad/siete-casos-mas-sangrantes-... Meanwhile in Bankia, Blesa, Rato and other top officials where spending and charging to Bankia millions of public money to black credit cards given by himselves. The money from the spaniards was spent in gas, clubs, skying, wine, jewels, expensive clocks, restaurants... And retired people were informed that his life-savings just dissapear "im-so-sorry-sob-sob". http://www.eldiario.es/gastos_tarjetas_black/grafico-gastos-opacos-tarjetas-black_0_314269022.html http://www.eldiario.es/gastos_tarjetas_black/grafico-gastos-... http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/oct/09/former-caja-directors-accused-credit-card-misuse-bankia http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/oct/09/former-caja-...
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]
bmelton 12y ago
> Is it optimism or cynicism to call that "recovering well"? Probably a bit of both. Depending on when you look at the data from, it's a definite improvement from their peak unemployment rate of 26.94%. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/charts/spain-unemployed-persons.png?s=spainuneper http://www.tradingeconomics.com/charts/spain-unemployed-pers... Long and short of it though, the economy is growing, though very slowly. Economic growth, even small amounts, quarter over quarter, is much more cause for optimism than economic decline, which was the course it had been on up til 2013 Q1.
chez17 12y ago
It bothers me when people post statistics out of context. If the unemployment rate was 48% and now it's 24% that's an amazingly successful policy to cut unemployment by half. If it was 12% and now it's 24% clearly something is wrong if unemployment doubles. Honest question, what is going through your mind when you post a statistic like that with absolutely context? How, to you, does this prove a point one way or the other?
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]
- TheOtherHobbes 12y ago
  Here's a graph of the change: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fvsTRmORSVI/T5qPyXygwNI/AAAAAAAAEUc/Kp9sIahSR10/s1600/Spain%2Bunemployment.png http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fvsTRmORSVI/T5qPyXygwNI/AAAAAAAAEU... It's not hard to find the facts and the context here, so your comment makes no sense whatsoever.
- glenstein 12y ago
  I think the context in this case is the usual, everyday awareness of typical unemployment rates, which politically conscious individuals tend to have. For instance, at the very least people probably have heard that U.S. unemployment has been anywhere from 9% to 5% in recent years. And we know that things were pretty bad when unemployment was 9%, and surely 24% is a lot worse than 9%. If you were good at U.S. history, you might recall that our great depression had similar unemployment rates. There's just about no context where that's a good number.
  - eru 12y ago
    I grew up in parts of East Germany that had 27% for years. Not pretty.

meric 12y ago

If Greece submits to an austerity plan, it loses because its people will suffer as it is doing so at this present time. If Greece defaults on it's obligations, there will budget surpluses immediately to spend on services. In the short term they would suffer some financial difficulty from not being able to access world credit markets but in the long term the economy will recover much more quickly. If Greece defaults, they can lose, or they can win. The only danger would be an invading EU/NATO army coming to confiscate their assets. The austerity plan works for the EU, of course.

eru 12y ago
> The only danger would be an invading EU/NATO army coming to confiscate their assets. I'm willing to bet on 50 to 1 odds that there will be no invasion. (Up to, say, 1000 USD exposure on my side.)
- TheOtherHobbes 12y ago
  The usual play is to stage a convenient military coup to 'bring back order and security', with leaders who then loot the country. No invasion necessary. I have huge respect for Varoufakis, but I hope he realises he is dealing with very dangerous thugs in very expensive suits, and not reasonable people.

rtpg 12y ago

>It's a game of Germany getting fed up with paying for the rest of the EU fed up with giving out loans that end up back in Germany due to how much Germany exports to them as well... Germany's obligations on austerity politics is what put Spain and Portugal in this mess to begin with. There's absolutely no economic argument for austerity in a 2008-style situation. People stopped spending, so the solution is for the government to stop spending as well?

barking 12y ago

>It's a game of Germany getting fed up with paying for the rest of the EU. The eurozone economy has been largely run in a way that benefits germany. When germany needs low interest rates the euro zone gets them and to hell with whether that suits Spain or Greece or Italy. And the bailouts that were given are not handouts, they are loans. If a bank lends you money they are not 'paying for you'.

eru 12y ago
Unless you are never giving the money back. (Or you get the money at below-market rates. Then they are effectively paying you the difference.)
fit2rule 12y ago
But .. why shouldn't the most productive member of the Eurozone get what it wants, while the least productive members of the Eurozone, get whats left? Economics 101: if you reward bad behaviour, you get more bad behaviour.

fapi1974 12y ago

I think the Iceland example is instructive. They told everyone who was not their citizens to piss off, had pain for a year or two, and are now fine.