5 ms·

I don't see the problem as a scientific one if the vaccine is effective against what is't supposed to be effective against. If the problem is that "people" bel

by m_eiman 17y ago

I don't see the problem as a scientific one if the vaccine is effective against what is't supposed to be effective against. If the problem is that "people" believe that a vaccine against one flu strain will protect them from getting sick from a variety of other viruses, it's a marketing problem.

gregwebs 17y ago
People believe what their government tells them. In this case it is the CDC, recommending an influenza vaccine for everyone older than 6 months, and particularly for certain at risk groups. The CDC is representing the science as demonstrating a high effectiveness, which as these review articles point out, is not the case. This is not just a problem of CDC marketing, though. As the Atlantic article points out, the scientists that are publishing research showing a lack of effectiveness in vaccines are not getting equal treatment among their peers who still believe them to effective.
- carbocation 17y ago
  The CDC does not advertise high effectiveness. This seems to be a strawman you are knocking down. If you administer a fairly ineffective vaccine, you will still save hundreds of lives. With a very effective vaccine, you'd save even more.
  - gregwebs 17y ago
    If you read the Atlantic article, the CDC believes vaccines to be so effective in the elderly that it would be immoral to do a randomized controlled trial. You can also see statements like this: http://www.cdc.gov/FLU/protect/keyfacts.htm http://www.cdc.gov/FLU/protect/keyfacts.htm The single best way to protect against the flu is to get vaccinated each year. More frequently washing your hands is more effective against influenza then vaccination. The purpose of vaccination is not necessarily to save lives- it is most often given to healthy individuals who are not at any kind of risk of death- it is so they can avoid getting sick. The life-saving claims for the elderly simply haven't been scientifically demonstrated, as the Cochrane review referenced by the Atlantic article points out- studies are below: doi:10.1002/14651858.CD004876.pub2 doi:10.1093/ije/dyi274
    - carbocation 17y ago
      Your point is good, and I don't see it as a rebuttal of mine. In particular, a vaccine can be both mildly effective AND, yet, so much more effective than placebo that to perform an RCT is immoral.
      - gregwebs 17y ago
        The above referenced studies point out that the influenza vaccine has not been proven to be more effective than placebo in the elderly, which is one of the groups that CDC thinks it would be immoral to give a placebo.
        carbocation 17y ago
        Can you clarify which "above referenced studies" you are talking about? From the same site that you pointed me to (CDC), I find this page http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/qa/vaccineeffect.htm http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/qa/vaccineeffect.htm stating "How effective is the seasonal flu vaccine in the elderly? ... the seasonal flu shot is 30%-70% effective in preventing hospitalization for pneumonia (a lung infection) and influenza ... In past studies among elderly nursing home residents, the seasonal flu shot was most effective in preventing severe illness and complications that may follow flu (like pneumonia), and deaths related to the flu. In this population, the shot can be 50%-60% effective in preventing hospitalization or pneumonia, and 80% effective in preventing death from the flu." Now, that is not a study itself, but a summary of prior studies. If you think the CDC has formed an improper conclusion, that's fine. Here is the Cochrane review on the effectiveness of vaccines in the elderly: http://www.cochrane.org/reviews/en/ab004876.html http://www.cochrane.org/reviews/en/ab004876.html The summary: "In long-term care facilities, where vaccination is most effective against complications, the aims of the vaccination campaign are fulfilled, at least in part. However, according to reliable evidence the usefulness of vaccines in the community is modest. The apparent high effectiveness of the vaccines in preventing death from all causes may reflect a baseline imbalance in health status and other systematic differences in the two groups of participants." In other words, like I said, the vaccine doesn't work all that well - but despite its relatively modest effectiveness, it is still of great importance in the very age group that you singled out as not receiving benefit.

by m_eiman 17y ago

gregwebs 17y ago

People believe what their government tells them. In this case it is the CDC, recommending an influenza vaccine for everyone older than 6 months, and particularly for certain at risk groups. The CDC is representing the science as demonstrating a high effectiveness, which as these review articles point out, is not the case. This is not just a problem of CDC marketing, though. As the Atlantic article points out, the scientists that are publishing research showing a lack of effectiveness in vaccines are not getting equal treatment among their peers who still believe them to effective.

carbocation 17y ago
The CDC does not advertise high effectiveness. This seems to be a strawman you are knocking down. If you administer a fairly ineffective vaccine, you will still save hundreds of lives. With a very effective vaccine, you'd save even more.
- gregwebs 17y ago
  If you read the Atlantic article, the CDC believes vaccines to be so effective in the elderly that it would be immoral to do a randomized controlled trial. You can also see statements like this: http://www.cdc.gov/FLU/protect/keyfacts.htm http://www.cdc.gov/FLU/protect/keyfacts.htm The single best way to protect against the flu is to get vaccinated each year. More frequently washing your hands is more effective against influenza then vaccination. The purpose of vaccination is not necessarily to save lives- it is most often given to healthy individuals who are not at any kind of risk of death- it is so they can avoid getting sick. The life-saving claims for the elderly simply haven't been scientifically demonstrated, as the Cochrane review referenced by the Atlantic article points out- studies are below: doi:10.1002/14651858.CD004876.pub2 doi:10.1093/ije/dyi274
  - carbocation 17y ago
    Your point is good, and I don't see it as a rebuttal of mine. In particular, a vaccine can be both mildly effective AND, yet, so much more effective than placebo that to perform an RCT is immoral.
    - gregwebs 17y ago
      The above referenced studies point out that the influenza vaccine has not been proven to be more effective than placebo in the elderly, which is one of the groups that CDC thinks it would be immoral to give a placebo.
      - carbocation 17y ago
        Can you clarify which "above referenced studies" you are talking about? From the same site that you pointed me to (CDC), I find this page http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/qa/vaccineeffect.htm http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/qa/vaccineeffect.htm stating "How effective is the seasonal flu vaccine in the elderly? ... the seasonal flu shot is 30%-70% effective in preventing hospitalization for pneumonia (a lung infection) and influenza ... In past studies among elderly nursing home residents, the seasonal flu shot was most effective in preventing severe illness and complications that may follow flu (like pneumonia), and deaths related to the flu. In this population, the shot can be 50%-60% effective in preventing hospitalization or pneumonia, and 80% effective in preventing death from the flu." Now, that is not a study itself, but a summary of prior studies. If you think the CDC has formed an improper conclusion, that's fine. Here is the Cochrane review on the effectiveness of vaccines in the elderly: http://www.cochrane.org/reviews/en/ab004876.html http://www.cochrane.org/reviews/en/ab004876.html The summary: "In long-term care facilities, where vaccination is most effective against complications, the aims of the vaccination campaign are fulfilled, at least in part. However, according to reliable evidence the usefulness of vaccines in the community is modest. The apparent high effectiveness of the vaccines in preventing death from all causes may reflect a baseline imbalance in health status and other systematic differences in the two groups of participants." In other words, like I said, the vaccine doesn't work all that well - but despite its relatively modest effectiveness, it is still of great importance in the very age group that you singled out as not receiving benefit.