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The author's theory depends on the notion that markets are extremely efficient at disseminating information. Even information that traders would like to conceal
by neilk 17y ago
The author's theory depends on the notion that markets are extremely efficient at disseminating information. Even information that traders would like to conceal. But this theory is under increasing scrutiny. You yourself might have noticed a few mispricings in the stock market lately.
Even Eugene Fama, the guy who coined the phrase "efficient market", now believes that it won't work in exactly the case the author describes. A few arbitrageurs in a very misinformed crowd won't correct the price.
Anyway, I know all this because I just finished the book The Myth of the Rational Market, by Justin Fox. It's the biography of the idea, from a tentative observation to dogma to just one tendency of the market among many.
At least the way Justin Fox tells the story, the stronger versions of the efficient market hypothesis just don't have a lot of evidentiary support anymore. Yes, markets try to get it right. But they can be persistently wrong in ways that efficient-market theorists think should only happen once in hundreds of thousands of years. This has happened multiple times just in the last 20 years.
Perhaps that information hasn't been efficiently disseminated to the WSJ yet.