According to the official Ministry of Justice figures, there were 745,000 reported burglaries in the UK in 2013 (last figures I could find), and there were 26,3

According to the official Ministry of Justice figures, there were 745,000 reported burglaries in the UK in 2013 (last figures I could find), and there were 26,300 convictions for burglary. Although the rates fluctuate, they don't change by orders of magnitude, so a steady state assumption isn't accurate, but is near enough for ballpark figures. So on that basis, the likelihood is > 95% that you'll get away with it. And note that those statistics are for all burglary, including aggravated burglary. I can't tell from the data, but I'd suggest it is reasonable to assume that petty burglary has a lower conviction rate still.