4 ms·

This is well-known, I think, in economic circles. If you want another, arguably more accurate measure based on the government's previous (pre-1995) methodology,

by declan 12y ago

This is well-known, I think, in economic circles. If you want another, arguably more accurate measure based on the government's previous (pre-1995) methodology, check out Shadowstats.com: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-chart... It shows the real unemployment rate, counting short-term discouraged and marginally attached workers, to be around 22-23% today. That's up from around 12-13% before the 2008 recession.

blisterpeanuts 12y ago
Wow, that's a lot. But it could be right. There are a lot of people out there who are under employed, living on spouse's income, working under the table (hence under the radar), etc. I'd like to conduct an experiment in special economic zones as was done in China and other developing areas in the recent past. Designate some place (my choice would be an impoverished inner city ghetto area) as an SEZ, and make it: no corporate taxes, no income taxes; no municipal, county, or state taxes; no unions; and minimal regulations - e.g., waive EPA environmental impact studies, waive minimum wage (down to some minimal amount like $4/hour). Guarantee these conditions for the next 10 years. I suspect you'd see factories, plants, and offices flock to such a zone, and there'd be a mad scramble for real estate. Ancillary services would also boom--taxi, food, construction, office supplies, delivery and courier services, etc. I doubt it would ever happen given the number of laws and rules you'd have to waive, but it would be an interesting experiment in cutting through the red tape and getting back to basics.
saalweachter 12y ago
Just out of curiosity, do you know where he gets his statistic for long-term discouraged workers (he defines his measure of unemployment as 'U6 + long-term discouraged workers'; U6 only includes short-term discouraged workers, who looked for work in the last year but not in the last month.)? The closest analogue I can find is the labor force participation rate, which has dropped steadily by a total of 3% since 2008[1]; this number doesn't seem to square with his chart, however, so I'm curious if you know his underlying data source. [1] http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
- djur 12y ago
  The underlying data source of Shadowstats is a combination of the official numbers and a constant extracted from the source that is underlying all of us when we sit down. http://econbrowser.com/archives/2008/10/shadowstats_res http://econbrowser.com/archives/2008/10/shadowstats_res
mikeyouse 12y ago
How on earth is a vague chart, with absolutely no methodology, promoted by a charlatan to sell subscriptions "arguably more accurate" than a completely transparent nationwide survey? Especially when that survey matches with literally all of the private measures of employment.
- streptomycin 12y ago
  My favorite thing about Shadow Stats is that they claim inflation is really high and the government numbers are fake, but they haven't increased their subscription price since as far back as it goes on archive.org.
deleted 12y ago
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by declan 12y ago

blisterpeanuts 12y ago

Wow, that's a lot. But it could be right. There are a lot of people out there who are under employed, living on spouse's income, working under the table (hence under the radar), etc. I'd like to conduct an experiment in special economic zones as was done in China and other developing areas in the recent past. Designate some place (my choice would be an impoverished inner city ghetto area) as an SEZ, and make it: no corporate taxes, no income taxes; no municipal, county, or state taxes; no unions; and minimal regulations - e.g., waive EPA environmental impact studies, waive minimum wage (down to some minimal amount like $4/hour). Guarantee these conditions for the next 10 years. I suspect you'd see factories, plants, and offices flock to such a zone, and there'd be a mad scramble for real estate. Ancillary services would also boom--taxi, food, construction, office supplies, delivery and courier services, etc. I doubt it would ever happen given the number of laws and rules you'd have to waive, but it would be an interesting experiment in cutting through the red tape and getting back to basics.

saalweachter 12y ago

Just out of curiosity, do you know where he gets his statistic for long-term discouraged workers (he defines his measure of unemployment as 'U6 + long-term discouraged workers'; U6 only includes short-term discouraged workers, who looked for work in the last year but not in the last month.)? The closest analogue I can find is the labor force participation rate, which has dropped steadily by a total of 3% since 2008[1]; this number doesn't seem to square with his chart, however, so I'm curious if you know his underlying data source. [1] http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

djur 12y ago
The underlying data source of Shadowstats is a combination of the official numbers and a constant extracted from the source that is underlying all of us when we sit down. http://econbrowser.com/archives/2008/10/shadowstats_res http://econbrowser.com/archives/2008/10/shadowstats_res

mikeyouse 12y ago

How on earth is a vague chart, with absolutely no methodology, promoted by a charlatan to sell subscriptions "arguably more accurate" than a completely transparent nationwide survey? Especially when that survey matches with literally all of the private measures of employment.

streptomycin 12y ago
My favorite thing about Shadow Stats is that they claim inflation is really high and the government numbers are fake, but they haven't increased their subscription price since as far back as it goes on archive.org.

deleted 12y ago

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