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The AI Revolution: Our Immortality or Extinction

26 points by adwn 12y ago

adwn 12y ago
I think that in the various scenarios the author depicts, there are too many "then a miracle occurs" steps [0]. For example, for an ASI to develop, a reasonably intelligent AGI is required first. But even getting to an AGI which is as intelligent as your average human, is very, very hard, and it doesn't just spring to life from an advanced ANI on a fast processor. The second step is even harder: Let's assume an AGI with an IQ of 100 exists, then it's supposed to recursively improve itself within a short time. Well, so far, humans have failed to improve themselves, and they had 1) a lot more time, think decades of neural research, 2) a lot more resources, especially lots of humans working on the problem, exchanging ideas and knowledge, 3) most of which are a lot more intelligent than an IQ of 100. So yeah, AGI -> ASI won't happen within hours, days, or even years. Maybe decades, if not longer. [0] http://star.psy.ohio-state.edu/coglab/Pictures/miracle.gif http://star.psy.ohio-state.edu/coglab/Pictures/miracle.gif
- visakanv 12y ago
  I hope you're right! But I think it's important to prepare for the worst case scenario. Even if we had 200 IQ humans working at max cognitive capacity, people still need to sleep, eat, poop. There are all sorts of limitations we have as biological creatures- the bandwidth of our communication is limited (this exchange takes us precious minutes, for example). It's difficult to imagine things happening at breakneck speed, but it's not impossible. And I think we should be prepared for that... We definitely don't want to underestimate it and go "oops, we thought it would take decades"! WThis seems to me like the most important thing in the world right now- or one of the most important things- that we should all be talking about. We may only get one shot at this...
- MildlySerious 12y ago
  We are probably missing out on a lot of progress because of the way information propagates. The solutions to many problems are probably out there, split up, hidden across dozens of papers in different topics. An AI capable of aggregating lots of information, making sense of and drawing conclusions of them could probably iterate on things way faster than the human collective could, because many of the factors that cost us time, outside of just raw processing power, are nonexistent.
pc2g4d 12y ago
"There are no hard problems, only problems that are hard to a certain level of intelligence. Move the smallest bit upwards [in level of intelligence], and some problems will suddenly move from 'impossible' to 'obvious.' Move a substantial degree upwards, and all of them will become obvious." I think the utterer of this quotation needs to study up on computational complexity theory.
- adwn 12y ago
  I'm not sure if you're joking, but I don't think Eliezer Yudkowsky intended his quote to be taken quite so literally. He was most likely talking about diseases and world hunger, not about 3SAT.
sethvoltz 12y ago
Much like XKCD, Tim Urban's graphics really seem to hammer the point home with a minimal of fuss.

26 points by adwn 12y ago

adwn 12y ago

I think that in the various scenarios the author depicts, there are too many "then a miracle occurs" steps [0]. For example, for an ASI to develop, a reasonably intelligent AGI is required first. But even getting to an AGI which is as intelligent as your average human, is very, very hard, and it doesn't just spring to life from an advanced ANI on a fast processor. The second step is even harder: Let's assume an AGI with an IQ of 100 exists, then it's supposed to recursively improve itself within a short time. Well, so far, humans have failed to improve themselves, and they had 1) a lot more time, think decades of neural research, 2) a lot more resources, especially lots of humans working on the problem, exchanging ideas and knowledge, 3) most of which are a lot more intelligent than an IQ of 100. So yeah, AGI -> ASI won't happen within hours, days, or even years. Maybe decades, if not longer. [0] http://star.psy.ohio-state.edu/coglab/Pictures/miracle.gif http://star.psy.ohio-state.edu/coglab/Pictures/miracle.gif

visakanv 12y ago
I hope you're right! But I think it's important to prepare for the worst case scenario. Even if we had 200 IQ humans working at max cognitive capacity, people still need to sleep, eat, poop. There are all sorts of limitations we have as biological creatures- the bandwidth of our communication is limited (this exchange takes us precious minutes, for example). It's difficult to imagine things happening at breakneck speed, but it's not impossible. And I think we should be prepared for that... We definitely don't want to underestimate it and go "oops, we thought it would take decades"! WThis seems to me like the most important thing in the world right now- or one of the most important things- that we should all be talking about. We may only get one shot at this...
MildlySerious 12y ago
We are probably missing out on a lot of progress because of the way information propagates. The solutions to many problems are probably out there, split up, hidden across dozens of papers in different topics. An AI capable of aggregating lots of information, making sense of and drawing conclusions of them could probably iterate on things way faster than the human collective could, because many of the factors that cost us time, outside of just raw processing power, are nonexistent.

pc2g4d 12y ago

"There are no hard problems, only problems that are hard to a certain level of intelligence. Move the smallest bit upwards [in level of intelligence], and some problems will suddenly move from 'impossible' to 'obvious.' Move a substantial degree upwards, and all of them will become obvious." I think the utterer of this quotation needs to study up on computational complexity theory.

adwn 12y ago
I'm not sure if you're joking, but I don't think Eliezer Yudkowsky intended his quote to be taken quite so literally. He was most likely talking about diseases and world hunger, not about 3SAT.

sethvoltz 12y ago

Much like XKCD, Tim Urban's graphics really seem to hammer the point home with a minimal of fuss.