4 ms·

I wouldn't invest. That growth curve doesn't seem reasonable. VC's: I don't really see there being an interest in this. What's the viral coefficient?

by ezl 12y ago

paul 12y ago
It has been years since I heard anyone ask about viral coefficients.
aragot 12y ago
And yet the graph seems exact: According to the Telegraph, Apple's sales in 1982 were indeed $1b. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/steve-jobs/8810045/Steve-Jobs-timeline.html http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/steve-jobs/8810045/Ste...
- TrainedMonkey 12y ago
  They did note that home computer market had been growing by 250% per year, that is mostly what that exponential curve is based on.
  - kw71 12y ago
    I happened to be reading a transcript of a Bill Gates interview last night. [1] Interesting that he predicted the exponential growth and realized it at Microsoft too. [1] http://americanhistory.si.edu/comphist/gates.htm#tc8 http://americanhistory.si.edu/comphist/gates.htm#tc8
- sliverstorm 12y ago
  In fact that means they underestimated. Read more closely, the graph is their estimate of PC Market Total Revenue and they predict only 35% market share of that pie. So they projected a 350M slice of a 1B market, and got a 1B slice of a... ??? market
porter 12y ago
Has there even been a market as big and as fast growing as PCs since then?
- ianmcgowan 12y ago
  Completely off-the-cuff, but mobile?
- mikeyouse 12y ago
  Mobile is a much larger market and a much faster growing one.. I can't find the chart I'm looking for, but on any reasonable time scale that includes PC saturation vs. mobile saturation vs. smartphone saturation, the 'Smartphone' line is damn near vertical. Here's a decent look: http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2015/1/11/home-and-the-mobile-supply-chain http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2015/1/11/home-and-the-mo... Even more impressive that Apple took a big piece of both.
  - fjarlq 12y ago
    You reminded me of these charts by Horace Dediu: http://www.asymco.com/2012/01/17/the-rise-and-fall-of-personal-computing/ http://www.asymco.com/2012/01/17/the-rise-and-fall-of-person... Unfortunately the images on that webpage seem to be broken. Here's a backup: http://web.archive.org/web/20141113180306/http://www.asymco.com/2012/01/17/the-rise-and-fall-of-personal-computing/ http://web.archive.org/web/20141113180306/http://www.asymco....
- AndrewKemendo 12y ago
  "Smart" device adoption

I wouldn't invest. That growth curve doesn't seem reasonable. VC's: I don't really see there being an interest in this. What's the viral coefficient?

by ezl 12y ago

I wouldn't invest. That growth curve doesn't seem reasonable. VC's: I don't really see there being an interest in this. What's the viral coefficient?

paul 12y ago

It has been years since I heard anyone ask about viral coefficients.

aragot 12y ago

And yet the graph seems exact: According to the Telegraph, Apple's sales in 1982 were indeed $1b. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/steve-jobs/8810045/Steve-Jobs-timeline.html http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/steve-jobs/8810045/Ste...

TrainedMonkey 12y ago
They did note that home computer market had been growing by 250% per year, that is mostly what that exponential curve is based on.
- kw71 12y ago
  I happened to be reading a transcript of a Bill Gates interview last night. [1] Interesting that he predicted the exponential growth and realized it at Microsoft too. [1] http://americanhistory.si.edu/comphist/gates.htm#tc8 http://americanhistory.si.edu/comphist/gates.htm#tc8
sliverstorm 12y ago
In fact that means they underestimated. Read more closely, the graph is their estimate of PC Market Total Revenue and they predict only 35% market share of that pie. So they projected a 350M slice of a 1B market, and got a 1B slice of a... ??? market

porter 12y ago

Has there even been a market as big and as fast growing as PCs since then?

ianmcgowan 12y ago
Completely off-the-cuff, but mobile?
mikeyouse 12y ago
Mobile is a much larger market and a much faster growing one.. I can't find the chart I'm looking for, but on any reasonable time scale that includes PC saturation vs. mobile saturation vs. smartphone saturation, the 'Smartphone' line is damn near vertical. Here's a decent look: http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2015/1/11/home-and-the-mobile-supply-chain http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2015/1/11/home-and-the-mo... Even more impressive that Apple took a big piece of both.
- fjarlq 12y ago
  You reminded me of these charts by Horace Dediu: http://www.asymco.com/2012/01/17/the-rise-and-fall-of-personal-computing/ http://www.asymco.com/2012/01/17/the-rise-and-fall-of-person... Unfortunately the images on that webpage seem to be broken. Here's a backup: http://web.archive.org/web/20141113180306/http://www.asymco.com/2012/01/17/the-rise-and-fall-of-personal-computing/ http://web.archive.org/web/20141113180306/http://www.asymco....
AndrewKemendo 12y ago
"Smart" device adoption