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Now coin flip wouldn't be anything near 50% accurate, unless there is a world where more than a small fraction of startups survive!
by gerhardi 12y ago
Now coin flip wouldn't be anything near 50% accurate, unless there is a world where more than a small fraction of startups survive!
- deleted 12y ago[deleted]
- cousin_it 12y agoA coinflip is always 50% accurate, no matter how improbable the event you're trying to predict. If I flip a coin to predict whether Cthulhu will rise tomorrow, I have a 50% chance of getting it right.
- Hasu 12y agoWhat? A coin flip would still be 50% accurate. If 10% of startups succeed, and we say that heads is "succeed" and tails is "fail": 5% of startups will be predicted to succeed and will succeed (correct prediction) 5% of startups will be predicted to fail and will succeed (false prediction) 45% of startups will be predicted to succeed and will fail(false prediction) 45% of startups will be predicted to fail and will fail (true prediction) 50% true predictions, 50% false predictions. A coin flip is always 50% accurate.