The existence of extinction events seem pretty likely to me, but I also think bad timing can explain a lot. Humanity has had an extremely small window of time

The existence of extinction events seem pretty likely to me, but I also think bad timing can explain a lot. Humanity has had an extremely small window of time in which it could observe non-visual signals from outer space. Radio waves were only discovered in the 1800's. Likewise, it's only after we started broadcasting ourselves that another civilization is likely to be able to detect our existence. We can detect a broad range of signals (but maybe not everything), but the signal types we know about are still bound by the speed of light. Maybe there's a civilization broadcasting towards us right now today, but we won't find out for another 3,000 years. Maybe our signals will reach someone in 10,000 years, and humanity will be extinct.