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I know I may get dinged for this observation, but it is something that really bothers me about certain types of forecasts...be it weather or things of this sort

by cubano 12y ago

I know I may get dinged for this observation, but it is something that really bothers me about certain types of forecasts...be it weather or things of this sort... That would be the "50% forecast", which, when examined with a bit of thought, really is saying "well, maybe it did, and maybe it didn't...we don't really know but hey, doesn't 50% sound scientific!" For sure, GRBs are scary, potentially life-wiping events, but, really..don't we deserve better than a coin-flip?

acadien 12y ago
It's just statistics. You look at how often we see GRBs, how long they last (on average), how intense they are (on average) then do a big time integral and figure out the odds of a big one hitting earth over such and such a period of time. There is no better than a coin-flip, the coin flip is the odds of it having happened (by the author's approximations). If I can help explain any further please let me know.
deleted 12y ago
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