4 ms·
You're falling into the "exponentation extrapolation" trap. We could be at the start of a logarthmic curve, or in the middle of an S curve.
by itg 12y ago
You're falling into the "exponentation extrapolation" trap. We could be at the start of a logarthmic curve, or in the middle of an S curve.
- tessierashpool 12y agothat's certainly possible, but people have been saying AGI was just around the corner for fifty years. they've never been right.
- rl3 12y agoExtrapolating the past as a means of predicting the future is a surefire way to be wrong one day. The stakes with AGI are such that we can't really afford to be wrong.
- tessierashpool 12y agopeople have been getting it wrong for a very long time without any particularly dramatic consequences. you might be right, but so far so good.