5 ms·

Your thinking seems to be very linear. Most things are, fortunately or unfortunately, not linear.

• itg 12y ago
  You're falling into the "exponentation extrapolation" trap. We could be at the start of a logarthmic curve, or in the middle of an S curve.
  • tessierashpool 12y ago
    that's certainly possible, but people have been saying AGI was just around the corner for fifty years. they've never been right.
    • rl3 12y ago
      Extrapolating the past as a means of predicting the future is a surefire way to be wrong one day. The stakes with AGI are such that we can't really afford to be wrong.
      • tessierashpool 12y ago
        people have been getting it wrong for a very long time without any particularly dramatic consequences. you might be right, but so far so good.