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Having bought the iPhone 6, I have to say I miss the size of iPhone 5, being able to use it with one hand, being less slippery, and the sturdy design. Many mon

Having bought the iPhone 6, I have to say I miss the size of iPhone 5, being able to use it with one hand, being less slippery, and the sturdy design. Many months passed by and I still miss it - this has never happened before. I won't be buying the Apple Watch because I have a real watch. And I simply don't see the point in having a watch that does a fraction of what my phone already does. I have just bought some PUT options on AAPL, because I don't see the revenue driver for the future. There's no need for a more powerful or slimmer phone at this stage, any advancement will be increasingly marginal. All the possible sizes are already out. Desperate people have got their hands on the latest gadget. What's next for Apple? How can they continue to grow phone sales at this rate? I simply don't see it, nor do I see another product category being as big as the truly personal computer that is the smartphone.

IBM 12y ago
I hope you aren't betting too much money.
threeseed 12y ago
Pretty dumb move to bet against Apple. Apple can and likely will release an iPhone 6s mini after they've exhausted their component supplies for the iPhone 5. But the very fact you bought the iPhone 6 (with its higher margin) just shows they know what they are doing. As for growth in smartphones they haven't even made a tiny dent in China, India or African countries. As for revenue drivers. The Apple Watch and future versions will sell and they haven't really done much with AppleTV, Beats, Primesense etc. So there's your 5 year roadmap.
- akrymski 12y ago
  I'm not saying they will rollover and die tomorrow. I think it's enough for them to start growing at a lower rate than the current 30% for the stock to take a hit. iPhone 6 mini - sure I see that. But it wont be much of an improvement to 5s, so not that many people will buy it. The other product lines are less than 10% of revenue. Asia is the key - and if they can keep the momentum they have in China for a few years numbers won't be bad, BUT even so I struggle to see the same YoY growth that they currently have.
  - goober3 12y ago
    > The other product lines are less than 10% of revenue. That's not true, you're thinking of Google the Ad company. $74.9 billion - $51.18 billion (iPhone revenue) = $23.79 billion. A bigger number I may add, then all of Google or all of Microsoft.
jen729w 12y ago
Ah, things were better back in my day! The kids now, they don't know what they've got. GET OFF MY LAWN! ;-) But seriously. I sometimes find myself slipping in to this sort of mindset; I sometimes even long for my iPhone 5 for exactly the same reasons as you. But this is the inexorable march of progress, right? As if the iPhone 6 we have today is the pinnacle of smartphone design. We'll look back in ten years -- twenty years, fifty years -- when our phones are vanishingly thin, when we lick them and stick them to our arms, or when they just are our arms, and -- no offence -- your comment will look a little ridiculous. And this is why Apple does what it does; it must be at the forefront, it must be the one at the bleeding edge. If it isn't, it dies. And if it isn't, well, how boring would everything be if the iPhone 6 was "the end". That future sounds really boring.
- akrymski 12y ago
  A slimmer iPhone requires a substantial breakthrough in physics and technology in general. So far improves have been incremental, but as with Moore's Law - we've reached the limit on thinness - current generation of components doesn't get thinner than that. Sure in a decade or more a new type of silicon may be invented, but it won't be Apple doing it. And I miss iPhone 5 for the same reasons Steve Jobs always said its the perfect size - it fits my hands perfectly. This isn't about me getting old. It's basic UX and ergonomics. These larger phones are ergonomically worse. Sure they pack a big screen, but I don't really see the point. I think it's just a craze. I've seen lots of people who haven't bothered to upgrade to 6 cause they think it's too big, and I'm not recommending people do - for the first time in history of Apple's product line. I think there's a reason for that.
Gustomaximus 12y ago
> nor do I see another product category being as big as the truly personal computer that is the smartphone I think these sectors will merge with solutions like Ubuntu Touch (though probably a MS/iOS/android version) creating a bigger smartphone sector but smaller overall combined sector. Also re: apple sales growth, they just have to maintain market-share as the developing world becomes wealthier the volume growth is there. The big risk is margin. As the $200 almost flagship phones proliferate its increasing difficult to justify spending $800 on a phone. At some point Apple will have to take a smaller premium.
- macintux 12y ago
  > At some point Apple will have to take a smaller premium. We've been hearing this for years now. Eventually your prediction may prove correct, but on a long enough time scale any negative prediction is correct, so what's the point?
- akrymski 12y ago
  Indeed, how many people in the world are rich enough to buy an Apple product with its associated high margin? A billion? That's about how many iOS devices Apple sold to date. Can it keep growing at 30% a year? I think it will simply run out of new customers and out of new products that will sell like hot-cakes.

IBM 12y ago

I hope you aren't betting too much money.

threeseed 12y ago

Pretty dumb move to bet against Apple. Apple can and likely will release an iPhone 6s mini after they've exhausted their component supplies for the iPhone 5. But the very fact you bought the iPhone 6 (with its higher margin) just shows they know what they are doing. As for growth in smartphones they haven't even made a tiny dent in China, India or African countries. As for revenue drivers. The Apple Watch and future versions will sell and they haven't really done much with AppleTV, Beats, Primesense etc. So there's your 5 year roadmap.

akrymski 12y ago
I'm not saying they will rollover and die tomorrow. I think it's enough for them to start growing at a lower rate than the current 30% for the stock to take a hit. iPhone 6 mini - sure I see that. But it wont be much of an improvement to 5s, so not that many people will buy it. The other product lines are less than 10% of revenue. Asia is the key - and if they can keep the momentum they have in China for a few years numbers won't be bad, BUT even so I struggle to see the same YoY growth that they currently have.
- goober3 12y ago
  > The other product lines are less than 10% of revenue. That's not true, you're thinking of Google the Ad company. $74.9 billion - $51.18 billion (iPhone revenue) = $23.79 billion. A bigger number I may add, then all of Google or all of Microsoft.

jen729w 12y ago

Ah, things were better back in my day! The kids now, they don't know what they've got. GET OFF MY LAWN! ;-) But seriously. I sometimes find myself slipping in to this sort of mindset; I sometimes even long for my iPhone 5 for exactly the same reasons as you. But this is the inexorable march of progress, right? As if the iPhone 6 we have today is the pinnacle of smartphone design. We'll look back in ten years -- twenty years, fifty years -- when our phones are vanishingly thin, when we lick them and stick them to our arms, or when they just are our arms, and -- no offence -- your comment will look a little ridiculous. And this is why Apple does what it does; it must be at the forefront, it must be the one at the bleeding edge. If it isn't, it dies. And if it isn't, well, how boring would everything be if the iPhone 6 was "the end". That future sounds really boring.

akrymski 12y ago
A slimmer iPhone requires a substantial breakthrough in physics and technology in general. So far improves have been incremental, but as with Moore's Law - we've reached the limit on thinness - current generation of components doesn't get thinner than that. Sure in a decade or more a new type of silicon may be invented, but it won't be Apple doing it. And I miss iPhone 5 for the same reasons Steve Jobs always said its the perfect size - it fits my hands perfectly. This isn't about me getting old. It's basic UX and ergonomics. These larger phones are ergonomically worse. Sure they pack a big screen, but I don't really see the point. I think it's just a craze. I've seen lots of people who haven't bothered to upgrade to 6 cause they think it's too big, and I'm not recommending people do - for the first time in history of Apple's product line. I think there's a reason for that.

Gustomaximus 12y ago

> nor do I see another product category being as big as the truly personal computer that is the smartphone I think these sectors will merge with solutions like Ubuntu Touch (though probably a MS/iOS/android version) creating a bigger smartphone sector but smaller overall combined sector. Also re: apple sales growth, they just have to maintain market-share as the developing world becomes wealthier the volume growth is there. The big risk is margin. As the $200 almost flagship phones proliferate its increasing difficult to justify spending $800 on a phone. At some point Apple will have to take a smaller premium.

macintux 12y ago
> At some point Apple will have to take a smaller premium. We've been hearing this for years now. Eventually your prediction may prove correct, but on a long enough time scale any negative prediction is correct, so what's the point?
akrymski 12y ago
Indeed, how many people in the world are rich enough to buy an Apple product with its associated high margin? A billion? That's about how many iOS devices Apple sold to date. Can it keep growing at 30% a year? I think it will simply run out of new customers and out of new products that will sell like hot-cakes.