How is it possible that millions of New Yorkers accurately discounted the probability of it being a 500-year storm and yet the mayor didn't? The responsibility

How is it possible that millions of New Yorkers accurately discounted the probability of it being a 500-year storm and yet the mayor didn't? The responsibility must lie with either the Mayor or the meteorologists. And there is something to own up to -- shutting down the city is not without real cost to real people. The mayor and governor will stay it was for our own good and better safe than sorry. But put a few million people under house arrest (no using roads -- under threat of arrest, no public transport) for basically no reason. But a few things to consider: 1) The meteorologists with the most dire predictions are the one who are going to be picked up by the media -- the media needs to sell ads. 2) The bulk of the population accurately discounted the most dire predictions, because of well-calibrated but subconscious Bayesian calculation. 3) Bureaucrats, and to some extent politicians of both parties, have a well-intentioned, but costly and wrong, need to subvert the judgement of millions and replace it with that of a handful of experts. When the judgement proves wrong, they rest on their good intentions without assuming responsibility. 4) In subverting these judgements bureaucrats and politicians can and do rely on the states monopoly on force.