5 ms·

Daring Fireball: Apple Netbook Claim Chowder

24 points by sant0sk1 17y ago

incomethax 17y ago
Apple has a netbook - its called the iPhone. I use my iPhone like I would use a netbook and then some.
- glhaynes 17y ago
  If I'd have heard somebody saying that before I got an iPhone, I'd have thought they were crazy. I reach for my iPhone (and it's not a long reach, since it's always in my pocket) for >80% of the things for which I used to reach for my MacBook. I have essentially zero desire for a netbook because of it. (Yes, yes, I know that's not the case for everyone. But I can't imagine a usage in my life where either my iPhone or my MacBook isn't a far better fit than a netbook.)
- chollida1 17y ago
  > I use my iPhone like I would use a netbook and then some. So you can install any software you want on it?
  - incomethax 17y ago
    Not being able to install any application is irrelevant. The fact is, I can install a large number of applications on my iPhone, the device is readily available, and has a great web experience. The point of a netbook in the first place is to be able to access the web, and be able to quickly get at the web - not to be able to install all applications.
  - tptacek 17y ago
    Note how he used the word "I", and not "you".
- callmeed 17y ago
  I'm in 99% agreement with the exception that the iPhone is unusable for anything that requires terminal/shell access. Even with a shell app on a jailbroken phone, the keyboard/screen just make it too hard. A netbook or tablet+bluetooth keyboard OTOH would be a little more handy for that. Not saying it would be enough for me to buy one, just an observation.
amackera 17y ago
I don't know what's wrong with me, since a lot of people seem to like this guy, but his posts just piss me off.
- allenbrunson 17y ago
  he is sometimes abrasive, which i'd prefer he wasn't. but he has his finger on the pulse of the apple ecosystem like no one else. and it seems to me that articles like this are occasionally warranted, because the attitude in the tech press about apple has always been 'wow, this company totally doesn't act like microsoft! clearly, they need to act more like microsoft' for decades, to the point where it's infuriating.
  - dasil003 17y ago
    I like Gruber because he gets Apple without being a fanboy. Some people would disagree, but those tend to be Apple haters who irrationally believe that Apple's success consists solely of pulling the wool over people's eyes with clever marketing. Gruber on the other hand, repeatedly sets the record straight on Apple in a way that would be quite informative to analysts if they paid attention. I have to admit though it's fun to watch analysts' perennial struggle to understand what makes a user-experience driven company work. Even after Apple almost kicked the bucket following all that analyst advice in the 90s, there is always this contingent that somehow thinks Apple should be Dell + Microsoft.
    - jbellis 17y ago
      > I like Gruber because he gets Apple without being a fanboy. Some people would disagree, but those tend to be Apple haters I have two macs and just ordered a third, but Gruber is a fanboy. (An intelligent one, but a fanboy all the same.)
      - pohl 17y ago
        I need to check...is there still room for being a fan of something without being a fanboi, or have those two concepts completely merged?
imok20 17y ago
I'm not sure the analysis is correct at all... I own both an iPhone and a MacBook Pro, and neither of them quite serve the purpose a netbook would. I'm considering getting an Asus netbook within the next 6 months should I hear no word of an Apple version. I'd rather run a lean OSX than Linux, but I'd be fine with Linux if it meant I'd have a portable full-sized keyboard with nice i/o options and a big-ish screen. Perhaps the plastic Macbooks would compete with an Apple netbook, but it's hard to believe that a significant number of people who already own a Mac and people who wouldn't considering buying a Mac wouldn't purchase a netbook. Correlation != causation, Gruber. Unreasoned speculation and a small assortment of media articles do not a convincing argument make.
- jacquesm 17y ago
  I'm running Ubuntu 'NBR' (note book remix) and it's an amazing little package, highly recommended. The netbook I use is one of the small acers, it has a 3G card slot and NBR recognizes and works with the 3G modem better than windows did on the same machine.
  - axod 17y ago
    ++ for Ubuntu NBR. I got my daughter an Acer Aspire One netbook. It came with a horrible linux distro (Forget the name, not a popular one). I installed Ubuntu NBR and it's great now. Much faster, and the UI/window manager with NBR is very nicely done to fit on a small display. The only thing I can't get working yet is the SD card slots :/
- unalone 17y ago
  The claim chowder wasn't just "I'd like Apple to make a netbook." The claim chowder was "If Apple doesn't do this, they are fucked." Apple didn't do it; Apple wasn't fucked.
  - imok20 17y ago
    I'm not disputing that, at all. I'm saying that if Apple HAD done it, they wouldn't be fucked. Gruber suggests that if they had made a netbook, they would have lost money. (Been fucked, in the lingua franca, evidently.)
catone 17y ago
That logic doesn't seem very, er, logical to me. The post is basically a bunch of quotes about Apple a netbooks. Some saying they should have one because an Apple netbook would be cool (it probably would be), some saying not having a netbook is hurting Apple (they seem to be doing just fine), some making shoddy predictions about slumping sales, and some saying Apple is a missing an opportunity (maybe they are). And Gruber's conclusion appears to be that had Apple had a netbook they'd be losing money. How does one reach that conclusion? Presumably, he means that netbook sales would cannibalize high end laptop sales. But that's doubtful. Most people who buy a netbook either have a high end laptop as well (like me -- I have a Macbook, a Sony VAIO, and an Asus EeePC) or were never going to buy a high end laptop in the first place. So... you can debate the merits or necessity of Apple adding a netbook all you want, but claiming that adding a netbook would have caused Apple to _lose_ money is just silly. That said, Gruber appears to be a Yankees fan, so he can't be all bad...
- roc 17y ago
  Presumably, he means that netbook sales would cannibalize high end laptop sales But isn't that exactly what's happening to all the PC manufacturers? Netbooks are growing at a stunning clip -- but when you subtract them from laptop sales, it looks an awful lot like their growth is coming at the direct expense of conventional laptop sales.
- jacobolus 17y ago
  No, the claim is that a bunch of "analysts" who said Apple was doomed, DOOMED, if they didn't make a netbook ASAP were proven wrong, and quite dramatically. Indeed, remember when Michael Dell famously said Apple should just give up on the hardware business, a few years ago? Well, Apple now has enough cash on hand to buy Dell flat out. That’s a pretty impressive turnaround in about a decade.
- jsz0 17y ago
  It's not so silly. Netbooks account for a little over 20% of all PC sales now. The PC industry has not grown 20% over the same time period. Either netbooks are cannibalizing higher end/margin sales or they are masking what would have been a huge drop in PC sales over the last 2-3 years. I think one of the biggest problems with trying to makeup margins with higher volume is that support costs don't scale that well. It costs the OEM basically the same amount of money to offer telephone support and warranty service to a $400 machine as it does a $2k machine. So they make less money per machine and, because they sell more machines, it costs more to support them.
hegemonicon 17y ago
The margins on netbooks are currently so small that they're essentially a commodity, and apple has never been a commodity company. Netbooks are clearly popular, so it seems unlikely that apple simply isn't interested in the market. The question is "can apple create a netbook that's differeniated enough from the rest of the pack that they can get the margins they want on it." The fact that one doesn't seem to be in development yet suggests the answer is 'no', but they may just be focusing their resources elsewhere.
- ugh 17y ago
  “doesn't seem to be in development yet” How do you know?
  - mikeryan 17y ago
    because there has been absolutely no indication from Apple that they are? (note no one is saying they aren't, just that they don't "seem" to be)
    - jacobolus 17y ago
      Apple is pretty good at being secretive when they want to be... remember the Intel switch, or the iPhone.
    - ugh 17y ago
      Well, with Apple that doesn’t mean anything. Sure, updates to existing products or small new stuff may leak. But the big things? You don’t see ’em comin’. But I would have to agree that it at least seems not very plausible to me that Apple is, at the moment, developing anything that would be recognisable as a Netbook. Hopefully not, because Netbooks may be cheap but they sure are ugly.
pieter 17y ago
Apple might have something in the pipeline yet, even if it isn't the iTablet. There's some interesting recent development in the low-power processors, and Apple has one advantage above all the other computer vendors: they aren't tied to x86. I think it's clear that Apple isn't going to run OS X on a device targeted for the netbook buyers. That leaves them with either the iPhone OS, or a completely new OS. The iPhone OS already uses ARM chips, a new OS would give them the choice between x86 and ARM. One obvious choice would the new Cortex A9 (http://www.arm.com/news/25922.html http://www.arm.com/news/25922.html) processors. The ultra-low power variant is already as fast as the Atom CPU's, the higher power variants are much faster, and you can basically put as many of those cores on a chip as you want. Until now such power has not been available to ARM-based devices, so it might be that Apple even has a complete device ready, but was just waiting for enough speed to put in it. Using this speedy processor and their customized OS, Apple can put something on the market others can't: an intuitive, speedy system that is designed to run on a small footprint. That might be something people are willing to pay a premium for.
- imok20 17y ago
  That's an excellent point. I can't believe that x86 netbooks will ever be able to outperform RISC-ier ISAs, not in the near future, and NEVER on battery life. Since netbooks don't really need to do much vector processing or too much FP stuff in general, a RISC-ier ISA is a totally acceptable alternative. A preferable one, should applications be easily portable to it. (That's key. We don't want yet ANOTHER OS X.)
- Hoff 17y ago
  Apple also acquired the P.A. Semi folks in 2008, which means the Apple have processor design capabilities, and some familiarity with x86, ARM and Power designs.
- robin_reala 17y ago
  Huh, interesting. I was going to post a nit-picking comment about ‘iPhone OS’ being OS X as well (Apple even used to refer to it as ‘OS X iPhone’) but now they seem to be using your nomenclature. E.g.: http://developer.apple.com/iphone/library/referencelibrary/GettingStarted/URL_iPhone_OS_Overview/index.html http://developer.apple.com/iphone/library/referencelibrary/G...
jsz0 17y ago
I think the big reason Apple hasn't experienced a decline in Macbook sales is the 13" Macbook is a really good mix of performance, usability and portability. <5lbs, thin, fast, good battery life. My assumption is most netbooks are being bought as a secondary machine to compliment either a desktop or a bulky 7-10lbs PC laptop that may perform well but is definitely not super portable. So let's say someone spends $500-$600 for the primary computer and another $300-$400 on the netbook. That adds up pretty close to the sticker price of a Macbook 13" which can legitimately serve both purposes as a primary computer and a highly portable computer. Is there really that much difference between 10"/3lbs and 13"/5lbs? I don't think so. (can't pocket it, you're probably using a laptop case or bag to transport it anyway. 2"/2lbs isn't a big deal)
- wmeredith 17y ago
  It also helps that you can get an Intel Core2 Duo 13" Unibody Macbook for $899 in Apple's refurb section. (With the same warranty as the new ones.)
wooby 17y ago
My favorite computer of all time was the Powerbook G4 12". Sturdy build, full size keys, and internal DVD. Were it not for Apple's switch to Intel, I'd still be using it. Was that a netbook? Not quite, but I really wish Apple would bring it back.
- jacobolus 17y ago
  Indeed. I think I'd be even happier with, say, an 11- or 11.5-inch widescreen laptop, just wide enough to have a full-sized keyboard, but with no extra space beyond that. These aluminum 13-inch unibody machines are extremely nice, and have fantastic build quality, but I wish they were just a tad smaller.
- wmeredith 17y ago
  I wish I could upvote this twice. I'm surfing on one right now. It's just right lap-sized for my wife and I. It's going to be my couch computer for a looooong time. Until Apple makes something small again. It doesn't have to be a cheap-o netbook it just has to be little.
jpcx01 17y ago
Gruber's logic is probably faulty. If there were an Apple netbook/table, people wouldn't stop buying normal apple laptops. They'd buy these in addition, and in much greater numbers. Apple has 10% marketshare. If they put out smaller, lower cost system, it's unlikely that the losses from existing mac users switching to a lower cost system would outweight the gains of people who would buy a decent mac netbook over a crappy windows one.
- jacobolus 17y ago
  People have been making arguments similar to yours for 10 years, and the only nod Apple has really made to them is the Mac Mini. In that time, Apple has been extraordinarily successful. Why do you think they should change strategies from the incredibly lucrative one they currently employ to the one you are suggesting, which they have essentially rejected for the past 10 years? > people wouldn't stop buying normal apple laptops ... people who would buy a decent mac netbook over a crappy windows one. Do you have any evidence for any of this, or is this pure conjecture?
  - blueben 17y ago
    He has exactly as much evidence as the original article does. He just doesn't have a popular blog to boost the credibility of his opinion.
    - jacobolus 17y ago
      The "original article" makes exactly zero unsubstantiated claims. Its points are (a) a bunch of wankers made terrible predictions, and (b) their predictions came false. Jpcx01's post, by contrast, is purely speculative.

24 points by sant0sk1 17y ago

incomethax 17y ago

Apple has a netbook - its called the iPhone. I use my iPhone like I would use a netbook and then some.

glhaynes 17y ago
If I'd have heard somebody saying that before I got an iPhone, I'd have thought they were crazy. I reach for my iPhone (and it's not a long reach, since it's always in my pocket) for >80% of the things for which I used to reach for my MacBook. I have essentially zero desire for a netbook because of it. (Yes, yes, I know that's not the case for everyone. But I can't imagine a usage in my life where either my iPhone or my MacBook isn't a far better fit than a netbook.)
chollida1 17y ago
> I use my iPhone like I would use a netbook and then some. So you can install any software you want on it?
- incomethax 17y ago
  Not being able to install any application is irrelevant. The fact is, I can install a large number of applications on my iPhone, the device is readily available, and has a great web experience. The point of a netbook in the first place is to be able to access the web, and be able to quickly get at the web - not to be able to install all applications.
- tptacek 17y ago
  Note how he used the word "I", and not "you".
callmeed 17y ago
I'm in 99% agreement with the exception that the iPhone is unusable for anything that requires terminal/shell access. Even with a shell app on a jailbroken phone, the keyboard/screen just make it too hard. A netbook or tablet+bluetooth keyboard OTOH would be a little more handy for that. Not saying it would be enough for me to buy one, just an observation.

amackera 17y ago

I don't know what's wrong with me, since a lot of people seem to like this guy, but his posts just piss me off.

allenbrunson 17y ago
he is sometimes abrasive, which i'd prefer he wasn't. but he has his finger on the pulse of the apple ecosystem like no one else. and it seems to me that articles like this are occasionally warranted, because the attitude in the tech press about apple has always been 'wow, this company totally doesn't act like microsoft! clearly, they need to act more like microsoft' for decades, to the point where it's infuriating.
- dasil003 17y ago
  I like Gruber because he gets Apple without being a fanboy. Some people would disagree, but those tend to be Apple haters who irrationally believe that Apple's success consists solely of pulling the wool over people's eyes with clever marketing. Gruber on the other hand, repeatedly sets the record straight on Apple in a way that would be quite informative to analysts if they paid attention. I have to admit though it's fun to watch analysts' perennial struggle to understand what makes a user-experience driven company work. Even after Apple almost kicked the bucket following all that analyst advice in the 90s, there is always this contingent that somehow thinks Apple should be Dell + Microsoft.
  - jbellis 17y ago
    > I like Gruber because he gets Apple without being a fanboy. Some people would disagree, but those tend to be Apple haters I have two macs and just ordered a third, but Gruber is a fanboy. (An intelligent one, but a fanboy all the same.)
    - pohl 17y ago
      I need to check...is there still room for being a fan of something without being a fanboi, or have those two concepts completely merged?

imok20 17y ago

I'm not sure the analysis is correct at all... I own both an iPhone and a MacBook Pro, and neither of them quite serve the purpose a netbook would. I'm considering getting an Asus netbook within the next 6 months should I hear no word of an Apple version. I'd rather run a lean OSX than Linux, but I'd be fine with Linux if it meant I'd have a portable full-sized keyboard with nice i/o options and a big-ish screen. Perhaps the plastic Macbooks would compete with an Apple netbook, but it's hard to believe that a significant number of people who already own a Mac and people who wouldn't considering buying a Mac wouldn't purchase a netbook. Correlation != causation, Gruber. Unreasoned speculation and a small assortment of media articles do not a convincing argument make.

jacquesm 17y ago
I'm running Ubuntu 'NBR' (note book remix) and it's an amazing little package, highly recommended. The netbook I use is one of the small acers, it has a 3G card slot and NBR recognizes and works with the 3G modem better than windows did on the same machine.
- axod 17y ago
  ++ for Ubuntu NBR. I got my daughter an Acer Aspire One netbook. It came with a horrible linux distro (Forget the name, not a popular one). I installed Ubuntu NBR and it's great now. Much faster, and the UI/window manager with NBR is very nicely done to fit on a small display. The only thing I can't get working yet is the SD card slots :/
unalone 17y ago
The claim chowder wasn't just "I'd like Apple to make a netbook." The claim chowder was "If Apple doesn't do this, they are fucked." Apple didn't do it; Apple wasn't fucked.
- imok20 17y ago
  I'm not disputing that, at all. I'm saying that if Apple HAD done it, they wouldn't be fucked. Gruber suggests that if they had made a netbook, they would have lost money. (Been fucked, in the lingua franca, evidently.)

catone 17y ago

That logic doesn't seem very, er, logical to me. The post is basically a bunch of quotes about Apple a netbooks. Some saying they should have one because an Apple netbook would be cool (it probably would be), some saying not having a netbook is hurting Apple (they seem to be doing just fine), some making shoddy predictions about slumping sales, and some saying Apple is a missing an opportunity (maybe they are). And Gruber's conclusion appears to be that had Apple had a netbook they'd be losing money. How does one reach that conclusion? Presumably, he means that netbook sales would cannibalize high end laptop sales. But that's doubtful. Most people who buy a netbook either have a high end laptop as well (like me -- I have a Macbook, a Sony VAIO, and an Asus EeePC) or were never going to buy a high end laptop in the first place. So... you can debate the merits or necessity of Apple adding a netbook all you want, but claiming that adding a netbook would have caused Apple to _lose_ money is just silly. That said, Gruber appears to be a Yankees fan, so he can't be all bad...

roc 17y ago
Presumably, he means that netbook sales would cannibalize high end laptop sales But isn't that exactly what's happening to all the PC manufacturers? Netbooks are growing at a stunning clip -- but when you subtract them from laptop sales, it looks an awful lot like their growth is coming at the direct expense of conventional laptop sales.
jacobolus 17y ago
No, the claim is that a bunch of "analysts" who said Apple was doomed, DOOMED, if they didn't make a netbook ASAP were proven wrong, and quite dramatically. Indeed, remember when Michael Dell famously said Apple should just give up on the hardware business, a few years ago? Well, Apple now has enough cash on hand to buy Dell flat out. That’s a pretty impressive turnaround in about a decade.
jsz0 17y ago
It's not so silly. Netbooks account for a little over 20% of all PC sales now. The PC industry has not grown 20% over the same time period. Either netbooks are cannibalizing higher end/margin sales or they are masking what would have been a huge drop in PC sales over the last 2-3 years. I think one of the biggest problems with trying to makeup margins with higher volume is that support costs don't scale that well. It costs the OEM basically the same amount of money to offer telephone support and warranty service to a $400 machine as it does a $2k machine. So they make less money per machine and, because they sell more machines, it costs more to support them.

hegemonicon 17y ago

The margins on netbooks are currently so small that they're essentially a commodity, and apple has never been a commodity company. Netbooks are clearly popular, so it seems unlikely that apple simply isn't interested in the market. The question is "can apple create a netbook that's differeniated enough from the rest of the pack that they can get the margins they want on it." The fact that one doesn't seem to be in development yet suggests the answer is 'no', but they may just be focusing their resources elsewhere.

ugh 17y ago
“doesn't seem to be in development yet” How do you know?
- mikeryan 17y ago
  because there has been absolutely no indication from Apple that they are? (note no one is saying they aren't, just that they don't "seem" to be)
  - jacobolus 17y ago
    Apple is pretty good at being secretive when they want to be... remember the Intel switch, or the iPhone.
  - ugh 17y ago
    Well, with Apple that doesn’t mean anything. Sure, updates to existing products or small new stuff may leak. But the big things? You don’t see ’em comin’. But I would have to agree that it at least seems not very plausible to me that Apple is, at the moment, developing anything that would be recognisable as a Netbook. Hopefully not, because Netbooks may be cheap but they sure are ugly.

pieter 17y ago

Apple might have something in the pipeline yet, even if it isn't the iTablet. There's some interesting recent development in the low-power processors, and Apple has one advantage above all the other computer vendors: they aren't tied to x86. I think it's clear that Apple isn't going to run OS X on a device targeted for the netbook buyers. That leaves them with either the iPhone OS, or a completely new OS. The iPhone OS already uses ARM chips, a new OS would give them the choice between x86 and ARM. One obvious choice would the new Cortex A9 (http://www.arm.com/news/25922.html http://www.arm.com/news/25922.html) processors. The ultra-low power variant is already as fast as the Atom CPU's, the higher power variants are much faster, and you can basically put as many of those cores on a chip as you want. Until now such power has not been available to ARM-based devices, so it might be that Apple even has a complete device ready, but was just waiting for enough speed to put in it. Using this speedy processor and their customized OS, Apple can put something on the market others can't: an intuitive, speedy system that is designed to run on a small footprint. That might be something people are willing to pay a premium for.

imok20 17y ago
That's an excellent point. I can't believe that x86 netbooks will ever be able to outperform RISC-ier ISAs, not in the near future, and NEVER on battery life. Since netbooks don't really need to do much vector processing or too much FP stuff in general, a RISC-ier ISA is a totally acceptable alternative. A preferable one, should applications be easily portable to it. (That's key. We don't want yet ANOTHER OS X.)
Hoff 17y ago
Apple also acquired the P.A. Semi folks in 2008, which means the Apple have processor design capabilities, and some familiarity with x86, ARM and Power designs.
robin_reala 17y ago
Huh, interesting. I was going to post a nit-picking comment about ‘iPhone OS’ being OS X as well (Apple even used to refer to it as ‘OS X iPhone’) but now they seem to be using your nomenclature. E.g.: http://developer.apple.com/iphone/library/referencelibrary/GettingStarted/URL_iPhone_OS_Overview/index.html http://developer.apple.com/iphone/library/referencelibrary/G...

jsz0 17y ago

I think the big reason Apple hasn't experienced a decline in Macbook sales is the 13" Macbook is a really good mix of performance, usability and portability. <5lbs, thin, fast, good battery life. My assumption is most netbooks are being bought as a secondary machine to compliment either a desktop or a bulky 7-10lbs PC laptop that may perform well but is definitely not super portable. So let's say someone spends $500-$600 for the primary computer and another $300-$400 on the netbook. That adds up pretty close to the sticker price of a Macbook 13" which can legitimately serve both purposes as a primary computer and a highly portable computer. Is there really that much difference between 10"/3lbs and 13"/5lbs? I don't think so. (can't pocket it, you're probably using a laptop case or bag to transport it anyway. 2"/2lbs isn't a big deal)

wmeredith 17y ago
It also helps that you can get an Intel Core2 Duo 13" Unibody Macbook for $899 in Apple's refurb section. (With the same warranty as the new ones.)

wooby 17y ago

My favorite computer of all time was the Powerbook G4 12". Sturdy build, full size keys, and internal DVD. Were it not for Apple's switch to Intel, I'd still be using it. Was that a netbook? Not quite, but I really wish Apple would bring it back.

jacobolus 17y ago
Indeed. I think I'd be even happier with, say, an 11- or 11.5-inch widescreen laptop, just wide enough to have a full-sized keyboard, but with no extra space beyond that. These aluminum 13-inch unibody machines are extremely nice, and have fantastic build quality, but I wish they were just a tad smaller.
wmeredith 17y ago
I wish I could upvote this twice. I'm surfing on one right now. It's just right lap-sized for my wife and I. It's going to be my couch computer for a looooong time. Until Apple makes something small again. It doesn't have to be a cheap-o netbook it just has to be little.

jpcx01 17y ago

Gruber's logic is probably faulty. If there were an Apple netbook/table, people wouldn't stop buying normal apple laptops. They'd buy these in addition, and in much greater numbers. Apple has 10% marketshare. If they put out smaller, lower cost system, it's unlikely that the losses from existing mac users switching to a lower cost system would outweight the gains of people who would buy a decent mac netbook over a crappy windows one.

jacobolus 17y ago
People have been making arguments similar to yours for 10 years, and the only nod Apple has really made to them is the Mac Mini. In that time, Apple has been extraordinarily successful. Why do you think they should change strategies from the incredibly lucrative one they currently employ to the one you are suggesting, which they have essentially rejected for the past 10 years? > people wouldn't stop buying normal apple laptops ... people who would buy a decent mac netbook over a crappy windows one. Do you have any evidence for any of this, or is this pure conjecture?
- blueben 17y ago
  He has exactly as much evidence as the original article does. He just doesn't have a popular blog to boost the credibility of his opinion.
  - jacobolus 17y ago
    The "original article" makes exactly zero unsubstantiated claims. Its points are (a) a bunch of wankers made terrible predictions, and (b) their predictions came false. Jpcx01's post, by contrast, is purely speculative.