We should always strive to improve our predictions, but I see a fundamental dichotomy: do you prefer false-positives, or false-negatives? We don't get to pick n

We should always strive to improve our predictions, but I see a fundamental dichotomy: do you prefer false-positives, or false-negatives? We don't get to pick no wrong results. When it comes to predictions like snow storms, hurricanes and tornadoes, you obviously want to favor false-positives. It's better to predict something bad will happen, pay the preparation costs and have nothing happen, than to have something bad happen when you're unprepared. So, yes, we should try to improve our predictions. And perhaps we should be better at communicating our uncertainty. But I don't blame the meteorologists, or the people in government who shut things down and told everyone to prepare.