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I disagree. When forecasters know with certainty that there will be 14 inches, that's what they should say. It's definitely more accurate. However, when they
by adamtj 12y ago
I disagree. When forecasters know with certainty that there will be 14 inches, that's what they should say. It's definitely more accurate. However, when they only know that it might go either way, they should say "2-16 inches", which is more useful and accurate in the face of real uncertainty. Even better would be "2-16 inches, probably 14".
A school administrator who sees a forecast of "14 inches" may simply cancel class the evening before, giving people time to prepare with certainty. That's nice, but not at the cost of a lost school day and calendar disruptions.
A forecast of "2-16 inches, probably 14" might cause that same administrator to wait and see. TV and radio would broadcast the news about possible school closings the evening before, so parents could prepare. They might have a bit more difficulty planning, but that's worth it if the school day can be saved.