4 ms·

Glad to see someone challenge "95% of all businesses fail" myth with a little data. I've always hated that "statistic". I'd rather look at it this way... 99.

by edw519 17y ago

Glad to see someone challenge "95% of all businesses fail" myth with a little data. I've always hated that "statistic". I'd rather look at it this way... 99.9999% of all sperm fail to reach their destination. Yours won. Keep winning.

revorad 17y ago
Brilliant. Must remember that one!
eugenejen 17y ago
Wow, even our births are black swans, a lot of high impact but very improbable events.
mseebach 17y ago
I think that statement is tainted by survivor bias.
- bd 17y ago
  See also anthropic principle: "The conditional probability of finding yourself in a universe compatible with your existence is always 1." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle
- Periodic 17y ago
  People also tend to have investment bias. Once you've invested in something, you're likely to think it is more valuable than if you haven't. To put it simply, we humans have trouble thinking from a different perspective, and we tend to focus on what we'd lose rather than gain. Thus, people who own their own business would be biased towards thinking that running their own business is the better option. Yeah, I've been reading Predictably Irrational.
lazyant 17y ago
Actually the sperm that "fail" is way more than 99.9999%. There are approximately 200 to 500 million spermatozoa per ejaculation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semen http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semen and a man produces 50 - 300 million sperm/day. I'll let this guy do the math: http://members.shaw.ca/tfrisen/chances_of_you_existing.htm http://members.shaw.ca/tfrisen/chances_of_you_existing.htm
- dtf 17y ago
  Another interesting factoid I read somewhere today: on average only 15% are fit enough to even reach the egg. Yet sperm fitness has been measured to increase after exposure to pornography involving men and women, while this effect is apparently not observed after viewing lesbian pornography. The theory is that seeing the competition somehow makes the sperm more competitive. And that's why it's better to hang around with your fellow HN'ers than your nay-saying friends.
  - Tichy 17y ago
    It sounds like watching porn is more beneficial than hanging around with HN people. At least if sperm fitness is your main priority.
jodrellblank 17y ago
This is based around an inside out view of life. I was not born. born happened first, and the creature existed for a while, and "I" am the emergent sentience. It wasn't "my" sperm since at that point I wasn't. "I" couldn't have been born anywhere else, at any other time, into any other situation or any other family. It's a nonsense idea.
- dkersten 17y ago
  I'd be kinda weirded out if your sperm impregnated your mother... so I'm glad to hear that it wasn't yours. Though, if you impregnated your mother causing yourself to be born...
  - bd 17y ago
    Obligatory link: Robert A. Heinlein - All You Zombies http://ieng9.ucsd.edu/~mfedder/zombies.html http://ieng9.ucsd.edu/~mfedder/zombies.html
- bd 17y ago
  Exactly, it's called "observation selection effect" (coined by Nick Bostrom): http://www.anthropic-principle.com/primer.html http://www.anthropic-principle.com/primer.html
dkersten 17y ago
83.26% of statistics are made up and 75.91% of people believe that.

by edw519 17y ago

revorad 17y ago

Brilliant. Must remember that one!

eugenejen 17y ago

Wow, even our births are black swans, a lot of high impact but very improbable events.

mseebach 17y ago

I think that statement is tainted by survivor bias.

bd 17y ago
See also anthropic principle: "The conditional probability of finding yourself in a universe compatible with your existence is always 1." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle
Periodic 17y ago
People also tend to have investment bias. Once you've invested in something, you're likely to think it is more valuable than if you haven't. To put it simply, we humans have trouble thinking from a different perspective, and we tend to focus on what we'd lose rather than gain. Thus, people who own their own business would be biased towards thinking that running their own business is the better option. Yeah, I've been reading Predictably Irrational.

lazyant 17y ago

Actually the sperm that "fail" is way more than 99.9999%. There are approximately 200 to 500 million spermatozoa per ejaculation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semen http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semen and a man produces 50 - 300 million sperm/day. I'll let this guy do the math: http://members.shaw.ca/tfrisen/chances_of_you_existing.htm http://members.shaw.ca/tfrisen/chances_of_you_existing.htm

dtf 17y ago
Another interesting factoid I read somewhere today: on average only 15% are fit enough to even reach the egg. Yet sperm fitness has been measured to increase after exposure to pornography involving men and women, while this effect is apparently not observed after viewing lesbian pornography. The theory is that seeing the competition somehow makes the sperm more competitive. And that's why it's better to hang around with your fellow HN'ers than your nay-saying friends.
- Tichy 17y ago
  It sounds like watching porn is more beneficial than hanging around with HN people. At least if sperm fitness is your main priority.

jodrellblank 17y ago

This is based around an inside out view of life. I was not born. born happened first, and the creature existed for a while, and "I" am the emergent sentience. It wasn't "my" sperm since at that point I wasn't. "I" couldn't have been born anywhere else, at any other time, into any other situation or any other family. It's a nonsense idea.

dkersten 17y ago
I'd be kinda weirded out if your sperm impregnated your mother... so I'm glad to hear that it wasn't yours. Though, if you impregnated your mother causing yourself to be born...
- bd 17y ago
  Obligatory link: Robert A. Heinlein - All You Zombies http://ieng9.ucsd.edu/~mfedder/zombies.html http://ieng9.ucsd.edu/~mfedder/zombies.html
bd 17y ago
Exactly, it's called "observation selection effect" (coined by Nick Bostrom): http://www.anthropic-principle.com/primer.html http://www.anthropic-principle.com/primer.html

dkersten 17y ago

83.26% of statistics are made up and 75.91% of people believe that.