3 ms·

Some of the numbers in this article don't make sense to me. Today "cars are driven just 4% of the time". If you assume for a moment that people's transportati

Some of the numbers in this article don't make sense to me. Today "cars are driven just 4% of the time". If you assume for a moment that people's transportation usage time stays the same, and "the number of vehicles on the road will be reduced by 99%", then the average car must be used 400% of the time. That would be possible if every self-driving car is carrying 4 passengers 100% of the time, 24 hours a day 7 days a week, which seems very unlikely. What am I missing? I also don't see the justification for saying "90% reduction of vehicles in operation would reduce our overall emissions by" 90% of their greenhouse gas emissions. There might be 90% fewer vehicles, and you certainly save on environmental impact of vehicle production, but they will be used more per vehicle. In fact, per-person transportation usage time may increase. If catching a ride is easy, fast, and cheap and allows us to work, sleep or play while riding, then many people will ride more often, or might buy a house that means a longer commute.

zkanter 12y ago
We're going to see an increased average number of passengers per vehicle. Current average in a city like San Francisco is 1.3 passengers/vehicle. An average of 4 is conceivable (67% decrease in number of vehicles on the road). Autonomous vehicles will likely be electric - this is the other component that will reduce our need for fossil fuels.
- brighten 12y ago
  Autonomous cars probably make transit optimization easier, but there's a tradeoff here that doesn't have very much to do with autonomy: The more people in the car, the less convenient for each rider, both because of comfort and delaying the trip with stops. It's basically the difference between a cab and a shared ride van today. It's certainly conceivable that cabs mostly disappear and are replaced by shared ride vans, but lots of things are conceivable... Autonomous vehicles will be electric but so will some (perhaps a smaller fraction of) non-autonomous vehicles. Anyway, that doesn't save the calculation. It's clear all these benefits are there but maybe not to the degree you claim, at least not in such a simple way.

zkanter 12y ago

We're going to see an increased average number of passengers per vehicle. Current average in a city like San Francisco is 1.3 passengers/vehicle. An average of 4 is conceivable (67% decrease in number of vehicles on the road). Autonomous vehicles will likely be electric - this is the other component that will reduce our need for fossil fuels.

brighten 12y ago
Autonomous cars probably make transit optimization easier, but there's a tradeoff here that doesn't have very much to do with autonomy: The more people in the car, the less convenient for each rider, both because of comfort and delaying the trip with stops. It's basically the difference between a cab and a shared ride van today. It's certainly conceivable that cabs mostly disappear and are replaced by shared ride vans, but lots of things are conceivable... Autonomous vehicles will be electric but so will some (perhaps a smaller fraction of) non-autonomous vehicles. Anyway, that doesn't save the calculation. It's clear all these benefits are there but maybe not to the degree you claim, at least not in such a simple way.