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I agree with you, and I think that anyone expecting this to all happen overnight is sorely mistaken. Consider that one of the other major threads on HN right no

I agree with you, and I think that anyone expecting this to all happen overnight is sorely mistaken. Consider that one of the other major threads on HN right now is about how Google can't get their OEMs to upgrade their customers from Android 4.3 to Android 4.4 - two OSes that are both obsolete. We as a society just don't large scale change that quickly. Engineers are always quick to ignore all of the social factors that matter in these kind of things. I think we see driver assist AI become standard on cars for about a decade before full autonomous cars become a thing. Keep in mind right now most cars have a button that effectively lets you set a speed and the car will then hurtle forward in a straight line, blissfully revving the engine to keep you at 75 mph without being aware of anything around you. It would be nice if cruise control could follow a lane and press the brake if there was traffic. That alone would save many lives a year, and would be a feature I would use. Sure I would still drive in cities and when its raining, but next time I'm on an open road, I'd be happy to let the computer take over.

gfodor 12y ago
The reason the cars are going to come fast is because the economic incentives are insane. If people are able to get over their irrational fears in this case they stand to gain back a ton of time, money, space, etc, quickly and directly. Not to mention that the smart money knows this and is starting to gear up for the transition already. edit: Also, the latest model S update does what you describe, it has lane change assist and follow during cruise control, maintaining a certain distance from the car in front of you.
- monk_e_boy 12y ago
  Having different sized cars on demand will be amazing. Going to work? 1 seat please. Going to the beach with the family? 7 seat + luggage area please. Going to town with mates? 12 seats. Going surfing with a friend? 2 seats, luggage area, kitchenette, changing area + wet storage area. I nerds who live in a city and don't really use cars other than to move them and a little shopping around forget about farmers, post men, telecom engineers, water engineers... if I get to a job and need some tools I can get them delivered from the depot while I work on something else! If I need a mini-digger I can order it and get it. Or if I need to take a fallen tree to the dump - easy. All these things I do in my little car at the moment, I have to compromise.
  - andyidsinga 12y ago
    I love this kind of thinking -- I've dreamt of the exact same things myself. Right now I have _three_ cars -- one I use for commuting, one my wife uses all day. and one (an old van) that I use for all my dirty projects. I would love to replace my commuter and project van with _more affordable_ versions of the same that also have the same flexibility. The last part is the limiting factor now -- but won't be for long (and I'm not even talking autonomous cars yet :) )
- andyidsinga 12y ago
  thats a good point re economic incentives. They could be so strong so as to make driving non-autonomous cars more expensive for those that care to. Once insurance companies and governments see real world data that shows that software can drive a car better than humans it will get very interesting. To take this to an extreme, humans driving cars manually might just become a sport.
nojvek 12y ago
In Beligum, I rented a VW with adaptive cruise control. It did exactly what you say. I was fucking mind blown. Now the only thing I really want is being able to follow a lane and take over steering and simple line changing. Then I can sit in my car at night, take a nap and end up in san fran from seattle. Highway driving can be severely automated since its long and tedious with a simple task of going on a straight road for ages.

gfodor 12y ago

The reason the cars are going to come fast is because the economic incentives are insane. If people are able to get over their irrational fears in this case they stand to gain back a ton of time, money, space, etc, quickly and directly. Not to mention that the smart money knows this and is starting to gear up for the transition already. edit: Also, the latest model S update does what you describe, it has lane change assist and follow during cruise control, maintaining a certain distance from the car in front of you.

monk_e_boy 12y ago
Having different sized cars on demand will be amazing. Going to work? 1 seat please. Going to the beach with the family? 7 seat + luggage area please. Going to town with mates? 12 seats. Going surfing with a friend? 2 seats, luggage area, kitchenette, changing area + wet storage area. I nerds who live in a city and don't really use cars other than to move them and a little shopping around forget about farmers, post men, telecom engineers, water engineers... if I get to a job and need some tools I can get them delivered from the depot while I work on something else! If I need a mini-digger I can order it and get it. Or if I need to take a fallen tree to the dump - easy. All these things I do in my little car at the moment, I have to compromise.
- andyidsinga 12y ago
  I love this kind of thinking -- I've dreamt of the exact same things myself. Right now I have _three_ cars -- one I use for commuting, one my wife uses all day. and one (an old van) that I use for all my dirty projects. I would love to replace my commuter and project van with _more affordable_ versions of the same that also have the same flexibility. The last part is the limiting factor now -- but won't be for long (and I'm not even talking autonomous cars yet :) )
andyidsinga 12y ago
thats a good point re economic incentives. They could be so strong so as to make driving non-autonomous cars more expensive for those that care to. Once insurance companies and governments see real world data that shows that software can drive a car better than humans it will get very interesting. To take this to an extreme, humans driving cars manually might just become a sport.

nojvek 12y ago

In Beligum, I rented a VW with adaptive cruise control. It did exactly what you say. I was fucking mind blown. Now the only thing I really want is being able to follow a lane and take over steering and simple line changing. Then I can sit in my car at night, take a nap and end up in san fran from seattle. Highway driving can be severely automated since its long and tedious with a simple task of going on a straight road for ages.