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I'm becoming more disappointed in this analysis. "But in 2007, something happened to propel [the Patriots] to a much better rate." The author is using a 5-yea

I'm becoming more disappointed in this analysis. "But in 2007, something happened to propel [the Patriots] to a much better rate." The author is using a 5-year average, and then concluding that something must have happened in a single year that is suddenly different. What that implies to me, is that they had a particularly terrible year in 2002. So, when the really bad year slides off of the 5-year moving average, then the 5-year average suddenly looks much better.

twoodfin 12y ago
Also, while the article ultimately looks at both, the "money chart" is for fumbles lost, rather than total fumbles. I'm pretty sure the stat guys at footballoutsiders.com have more than once run the numbers to show that fumble recovery is pure chance; hard to see how having easier to handle balls increases those odds.