It was someone else who made that initial claim of 2% Sorry, complete failure to pay attention on my part. Though as to your other point, unmeasured factors c

It was someone else who made that initial claim of 2% Sorry, complete failure to pay attention on my part. Though as to your other point, unmeasured factors could push the figure either way, so if you allow the error bars to go as low as 2% purely on a hunch, then you should also consider that it could be up to 9.9%, if trying to work out any sort of reasonable policy.