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I thought Microsoft was kind of dead too: http://www.paulgraham.com/microsoft.html http://www.paulgraham.com/microsoft.html However, in the past six months the

I thought Microsoft was kind of dead too: http://www.paulgraham.com/microsoft.html http://www.paulgraham.com/microsoft.html However, in the past six months they continue to become more surprising, interesting and relevant on many fronts every day. And the pace seems to be accelerating. I might dare say they're the most exciting "big" tech company in 2015...

Chronic30 12y ago
As with most things Paul Graham says, he is usually wrong.
vmarsy 12y ago
"Thanks to OS X, Apple has come back from the dead in a way that is extremely rare in technology. [2] Their victory is so complete that I'm now surprised when I come across a computer running Windows. Nearly all the people we fund at Y Combinator use Apple laptops. It was the same in the audience at startup school. All the computer people use Macs or Linux now. Windows is for grandmas, like Macs used to be in the 90s. So not only does the desktop no longer matter, no one who cares about computers uses Microsoft's anyway." Maybe Microsoft is coming back from the dead the same way Apple did? Also April 2007, 2 months before the first iPhone was released, PG couldn't have predicted the impact of the iPhone in the mobile world. The only mention of it is : "of course Apple has Microsoft on the run in music too, with TV and phones on the way." But in the desktop world, Windows is still 90% of the operating system share[1] , (or at least 80% according to [2]) It's not surprising that every developer in the SV uses a MacBook: it's the best working tool for them. But if you look out in the rest of the world, people are not buying >$2000 laptops/desktops when they are perfectly fine with a Windows laptop to do their work&play. [1] http://www.netmarketshare.com/ http://www.netmarketshare.com/ [2] http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_os.asp http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_os.asp
- AdeptusAquinas 12y ago
  When PG wrote that and I read it I was working in a Microsoft partner shop developing full-stack MS solutions for clients. In Wellington NZ at the time almost everyone of any significant size, from private to public sector, used MS exclusively (its a little different now, 'bout 50/50 with a lot of mixed solutions). I couldn't tell where he was coming from - the only rationalisation seemed that he was talking exclusively about the startup scene in silicon valley. Case in point, we would have been surprised if we came across anyone using a machine running OS X, unless it was a personal toy they brought into work.
- Hasu 12y ago
  >Maybe Microsoft is coming back from the dead the same way Apple did? No, because Microsoft was never "dead" the same way Apple was. Apple was unprofitable and on the brink of bankruptcy. Microsoft had new competition, but was still making more money than Apple or Google during its "slump". Apple recovered by appealing to the general public instead of a niche market. Remember what owning a Mac was like in the 90s? Microsoft is "recovering" by appealing to a niche market segment that they've spent most of their corporate history alienating: the open source hacker crowd, ie, people who read this site. PG only thought MS was dead because, like Sauron in the Third Age, its shadow no longer darkened the world he saw. That doesn't mean that Sauron/MS's power was broken, just that it wasn't affecting the Hobbits/hackers in the Shire/Silicon Valley. Now Sauron is back and he wants to come smoke pipeweed and eat second breakfast, and everyone is very aware of how healthy and dapper he is these days.
ProAm 12y ago
Most of Microsoft's problems were leadership. Not intentional (Im assuming, but I cant imagine that's a wrong assumption) but they just steered the ship in a bad direction for too long and now are playing catchup/pivot/refocus. A company that large with that much reach will be around for a long long long time.
Florin_Andrei 12y ago
They got rid of Ballmer.
wdewind 12y ago
The only part of Microsoft that was ever dying was their reputation in a very small circle of programmers (ie: us). It's a little frustrating to read such myopic views of MS (especially from PG) on an entrepreneurial website because there's such a huge focus on their appeal to us, and not at all on their actual success as a business, which has been huge. And yes, as much as we don't like him, this includes the Ballmer years. There is absolutely zero indication that Microsoft is actually dying: https://www.google.com/search?q=msft&oq=msft&aqs=chrome..69i57l2j69i60j69i61l3.402j0j7&sourceid=chrome&es_sm=91&ie=UTF-8 https://www.google.com/search?q=msft&oq=msft&aqs=chrome..69i...
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]
- jahewson 12y ago
  Have you been to a Microsoft Store? The employees usually outnumber the customers. Because it's not just developers they've lost, it's consumers. Microsoft are great at enterprise, but their consumer ambitions are going to be hard to realise.
  - LLWM 12y ago
    Consumers are overrated. Do you really think Sysco is going to go under because the average guy on the street doesn't know or care about them?
    - dlp211 12y ago
      Not sure if you actually mean Sysco [1] or Cisco [2]. Your analogy actually works for both, but this being a tech site I assume you mean the latter. [1] http://www.sysco.com/ http://www.sysco.com/ [2] http://www.cisco.com/ http://www.cisco.com/
      - LLWM 12y ago
        I wrote the former, didn't I?
outside2344 12y ago
That essay is great proof that even the smartest minds don't get it right every time and are just as "sucked in the bubble" as the rest of us sometimes.
- Detrus 12y ago
  Yea he was also wrong about web apps taking over the desktop. They're not even close and it's 2015. Mobile really put the breaks on that.
  - _nedR 12y ago
    Well. In many ways he's right. How many people still use an desktop email-client? or chat client? I personally use Google docs as my primary office suite. Lot of software in enterprise is also web-based. Web-based apps are also battling it out on mobile. Lot of apps are just wrappers for accessing web-based content. Performance is the primary obstacle stoping mobile from going completely web-based. Both the new entrants, Tizen and Firefox OS (not to mention Chrome OS) have thrown their weight behind web apps. We consume radio and youtube through web. Its not a stretch to imagine Netflix being accessed primarily through the browser in the future. The growing SaaS business model is highly favoured to web-based apps. It is taking longer than expected, but the future is generally trending in the direction of web-based apps.
    - fnord123 12y ago
      > In many ways he's right. How many people still use an desktop email-client? or chat client? Are you suggesting that it's rare for people to use Outlook or Skype?
      - _nedR 12y ago
        Not rare per se. But getting rarer and rarer.
curiousDog 12y ago
Well it's in the best interests of VCs to say that Microsoft is dead. Peter Thiel would also say the same thing. Especially since Microsoft is in a relatively vulnerable position (i.e no clear monopoly/hard to replicate product like Google in Search or Apple in Hardware). They'd rather have investors invest in the shiny new equivalents their start-ups are coming up with.
- cwyers 12y ago
  No clear monopoly? Microsoft? Huh?
  - ygra 12y ago
    Perhaps they assume that the desktop computers are deader than they actually are.
    - cwyers 12y ago
      If you look at the data, Google has roughly 70% of the search market, and Microsoft (if you include Yahoo, which uses Bing to provide search results) has about 30%. http://searchengineland.com/yahoo-sees-big-1-6-percent-monthly-search-gain-new-comscore-data-213206 http://searchengineland.com/yahoo-sees-big-1-6-percent-month... iOS isn't even the market share leader among smartphones: http://www.computerworld.com/article/2866441/iphone-6-boosts-ios-market-share-android-slips.html http://www.computerworld.com/article/2866441/iphone-6-boosts... Meanwhile Microsoft Windows has over 90% of the desktop operating system market share: http://netmarketshare.com/operating-system-market-share.aspx?qprid=10&qpcustomd=0 http://netmarketshare.com/operating-system-market-share.aspx... And 95% of the market share in productivity software (so Office): http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2013/01/09/an-overview-why-microsofts-worth-42/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2013/01/09/an-... Yet Microsoft can't compete with Apple and Google, because they have a clear monopoly when Microsoft doesn't? It's crazy talk.

Chronic30 12y ago

As with most things Paul Graham says, he is usually wrong.

vmarsy 12y ago

"Thanks to OS X, Apple has come back from the dead in a way that is extremely rare in technology. [2] Their victory is so complete that I'm now surprised when I come across a computer running Windows. Nearly all the people we fund at Y Combinator use Apple laptops. It was the same in the audience at startup school. All the computer people use Macs or Linux now. Windows is for grandmas, like Macs used to be in the 90s. So not only does the desktop no longer matter, no one who cares about computers uses Microsoft's anyway." Maybe Microsoft is coming back from the dead the same way Apple did? Also April 2007, 2 months before the first iPhone was released, PG couldn't have predicted the impact of the iPhone in the mobile world. The only mention of it is : "of course Apple has Microsoft on the run in music too, with TV and phones on the way." But in the desktop world, Windows is still 90% of the operating system share[1] , (or at least 80% according to [2]) It's not surprising that every developer in the SV uses a MacBook: it's the best working tool for them. But if you look out in the rest of the world, people are not buying >$2000 laptops/desktops when they are perfectly fine with a Windows laptop to do their work&play. [1] http://www.netmarketshare.com/ http://www.netmarketshare.com/ [2] http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_os.asp http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_os.asp

AdeptusAquinas 12y ago
When PG wrote that and I read it I was working in a Microsoft partner shop developing full-stack MS solutions for clients. In Wellington NZ at the time almost everyone of any significant size, from private to public sector, used MS exclusively (its a little different now, 'bout 50/50 with a lot of mixed solutions). I couldn't tell where he was coming from - the only rationalisation seemed that he was talking exclusively about the startup scene in silicon valley. Case in point, we would have been surprised if we came across anyone using a machine running OS X, unless it was a personal toy they brought into work.
Hasu 12y ago
>Maybe Microsoft is coming back from the dead the same way Apple did? No, because Microsoft was never "dead" the same way Apple was. Apple was unprofitable and on the brink of bankruptcy. Microsoft had new competition, but was still making more money than Apple or Google during its "slump". Apple recovered by appealing to the general public instead of a niche market. Remember what owning a Mac was like in the 90s? Microsoft is "recovering" by appealing to a niche market segment that they've spent most of their corporate history alienating: the open source hacker crowd, ie, people who read this site. PG only thought MS was dead because, like Sauron in the Third Age, its shadow no longer darkened the world he saw. That doesn't mean that Sauron/MS's power was broken, just that it wasn't affecting the Hobbits/hackers in the Shire/Silicon Valley. Now Sauron is back and he wants to come smoke pipeweed and eat second breakfast, and everyone is very aware of how healthy and dapper he is these days.

ProAm 12y ago

Most of Microsoft's problems were leadership. Not intentional (Im assuming, but I cant imagine that's a wrong assumption) but they just steered the ship in a bad direction for too long and now are playing catchup/pivot/refocus. A company that large with that much reach will be around for a long long long time.

Florin_Andrei 12y ago

They got rid of Ballmer.

wdewind 12y ago

The only part of Microsoft that was ever dying was their reputation in a very small circle of programmers (ie: us). It's a little frustrating to read such myopic views of MS (especially from PG) on an entrepreneurial website because there's such a huge focus on their appeal to us, and not at all on their actual success as a business, which has been huge. And yes, as much as we don't like him, this includes the Ballmer years. There is absolutely zero indication that Microsoft is actually dying: https://www.google.com/search?q=msft&oq=msft&aqs=chrome..69i57l2j69i60j69i61l3.402j0j7&sourceid=chrome&es_sm=91&ie=UTF-8 https://www.google.com/search?q=msft&oq=msft&aqs=chrome..69i...

deleted 12y ago
[deleted]
jahewson 12y ago
Have you been to a Microsoft Store? The employees usually outnumber the customers. Because it's not just developers they've lost, it's consumers. Microsoft are great at enterprise, but their consumer ambitions are going to be hard to realise.
- LLWM 12y ago
  Consumers are overrated. Do you really think Sysco is going to go under because the average guy on the street doesn't know or care about them?
  - dlp211 12y ago
    Not sure if you actually mean Sysco [1] or Cisco [2]. Your analogy actually works for both, but this being a tech site I assume you mean the latter. [1] http://www.sysco.com/ http://www.sysco.com/ [2] http://www.cisco.com/ http://www.cisco.com/
    - LLWM 12y ago
      I wrote the former, didn't I?

outside2344 12y ago

That essay is great proof that even the smartest minds don't get it right every time and are just as "sucked in the bubble" as the rest of us sometimes.

Detrus 12y ago
Yea he was also wrong about web apps taking over the desktop. They're not even close and it's 2015. Mobile really put the breaks on that.
- _nedR 12y ago
  Well. In many ways he's right. How many people still use an desktop email-client? or chat client? I personally use Google docs as my primary office suite. Lot of software in enterprise is also web-based. Web-based apps are also battling it out on mobile. Lot of apps are just wrappers for accessing web-based content. Performance is the primary obstacle stoping mobile from going completely web-based. Both the new entrants, Tizen and Firefox OS (not to mention Chrome OS) have thrown their weight behind web apps. We consume radio and youtube through web. Its not a stretch to imagine Netflix being accessed primarily through the browser in the future. The growing SaaS business model is highly favoured to web-based apps. It is taking longer than expected, but the future is generally trending in the direction of web-based apps.
  - fnord123 12y ago
    > In many ways he's right. How many people still use an desktop email-client? or chat client? Are you suggesting that it's rare for people to use Outlook or Skype?
    - _nedR 12y ago
      Not rare per se. But getting rarer and rarer.

curiousDog 12y ago

Well it's in the best interests of VCs to say that Microsoft is dead. Peter Thiel would also say the same thing. Especially since Microsoft is in a relatively vulnerable position (i.e no clear monopoly/hard to replicate product like Google in Search or Apple in Hardware). They'd rather have investors invest in the shiny new equivalents their start-ups are coming up with.

cwyers 12y ago
No clear monopoly? Microsoft? Huh?
- ygra 12y ago
  Perhaps they assume that the desktop computers are deader than they actually are.
  - cwyers 12y ago
    If you look at the data, Google has roughly 70% of the search market, and Microsoft (if you include Yahoo, which uses Bing to provide search results) has about 30%. http://searchengineland.com/yahoo-sees-big-1-6-percent-monthly-search-gain-new-comscore-data-213206 http://searchengineland.com/yahoo-sees-big-1-6-percent-month... iOS isn't even the market share leader among smartphones: http://www.computerworld.com/article/2866441/iphone-6-boosts-ios-market-share-android-slips.html http://www.computerworld.com/article/2866441/iphone-6-boosts... Meanwhile Microsoft Windows has over 90% of the desktop operating system market share: http://netmarketshare.com/operating-system-market-share.aspx?qprid=10&qpcustomd=0 http://netmarketshare.com/operating-system-market-share.aspx... And 95% of the market share in productivity software (so Office): http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2013/01/09/an-overview-why-microsofts-worth-42/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2013/01/09/an-... Yet Microsoft can't compete with Apple and Google, because they have a clear monopoly when Microsoft doesn't? It's crazy talk.