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The first part is absolutely true, the second line sounds like something directly from Peter Thiel. While there's wisdom in his idea of finding green pastures

by brd 12y ago

The first part is absolutely true, the second line sounds like something directly from Peter Thiel. While there's wisdom in his idea of finding green pastures and being a pioneer, its actually not the best way to become a billionaire. Picking the right industry is a far better strategy. If you look, something like 25% of newly minted billionaires made it there via investments (i.e. finance) while another large chunk got there via real estate. Neither of which requires much in the way of being a trail blazer, just hard work and competence.

dalke 12y ago
3 of the top 10 billionaires are from the Walton family, so another good way is to inherit it. I say that to suggest that you have a strong bias error. http://selectusa.commerce.gov/industry-snapshots/financial-services-industry-united-states http://selectusa.commerce.gov/industry-snapshots/financial-s... says there are 5.87 million in the 'financial services and insurance sectors' in the US. There are under 2,000 billionaires in the word, so at most 500 "newly minted" billionaires who made it there via investments. It's impossible that a lack of "hard work and competence" is the reason that the remaining 5.87 million failed to become billionaires.
- brd 12y ago
  I wouldn't say my bias is so strong, more that you're allowing labor statistics to water down what would be meaningful paths to being a billionaire via the finance industry. To your point: A large majority of the tech billionaires have software backgrounds yet only ~30% of the IT industry are programmers. So while the IT industry may look like a better place than finance, its really programming that looks better, not IT.
  - dalke 12y ago
    I was suggesting that "just hard work and competence" was insufficient to explain the reason for success. FWIW, assuming that "newly minted" means "within the last year", only 3 of the 27 listed at http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2014/billionaires/newcomers.html http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2014/billionaires/newco... come from the investment industry. 5 come from the entertainment industry.
    - brd 12y ago
      I must have misread a headline at some point because the number of finance billionaires is smaller than I thought. Having said that, of the 268 listed by forbes, 15 were in finance. http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexmorrell/2014/03/06/worlds-billionaires-newcomers-the-full-list-of-268/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexmorrell/2014/03/06/worlds-bi... Anyway, I'd certainly agree that "hard work and competence" is an understatement but one of the luxuries of being in finance is that your entire career is built around making money from money. This affords a much more systematic approach to being a billionaire than you might find in other industries.

by brd 12y ago

dalke 12y ago

3 of the top 10 billionaires are from the Walton family, so another good way is to inherit it. I say that to suggest that you have a strong bias error. http://selectusa.commerce.gov/industry-snapshots/financial-services-industry-united-states http://selectusa.commerce.gov/industry-snapshots/financial-s... says there are 5.87 million in the 'financial services and insurance sectors' in the US. There are under 2,000 billionaires in the word, so at most 500 "newly minted" billionaires who made it there via investments. It's impossible that a lack of "hard work and competence" is the reason that the remaining 5.87 million failed to become billionaires.

brd 12y ago
I wouldn't say my bias is so strong, more that you're allowing labor statistics to water down what would be meaningful paths to being a billionaire via the finance industry. To your point: A large majority of the tech billionaires have software backgrounds yet only ~30% of the IT industry are programmers. So while the IT industry may look like a better place than finance, its really programming that looks better, not IT.
- dalke 12y ago
  I was suggesting that "just hard work and competence" was insufficient to explain the reason for success. FWIW, assuming that "newly minted" means "within the last year", only 3 of the 27 listed at http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2014/billionaires/newcomers.html http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2014/billionaires/newco... come from the investment industry. 5 come from the entertainment industry.
  - brd 12y ago
    I must have misread a headline at some point because the number of finance billionaires is smaller than I thought. Having said that, of the 268 listed by forbes, 15 were in finance. http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexmorrell/2014/03/06/worlds-billionaires-newcomers-the-full-list-of-268/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexmorrell/2014/03/06/worlds-bi... Anyway, I'd certainly agree that "hard work and competence" is an understatement but one of the luxuries of being in finance is that your entire career is built around making money from money. This affords a much more systematic approach to being a billionaire than you might find in other industries.