I hear this a lot, but, given what I've read recently about the true state of self-driving cars, I think the "robocars as a replacement for taxis (especially in

I hear this a lot, but, given what I've read recently about the true state of self-driving cars, I think the "robocars as a replacement for taxis (especially in cities, Uber's main market)" is a REALLY long ways off, i.e a generation or more. That is, it seems to me like the places fully self-driving cars will initially be most successful is places where access is limited or "messiness" is minimized - places like highways, where you could even have "self-driving car only" lanes - a huge boons for long commutes. In cities, though, there are a lot of Really Hard Problems, that from what I've read engineers are not even close to being able to solve, things like: 1. Following detour signs 2. Following a street cop when they are contradicting stoplights or other road rules. 3. Dealing with construction signs in traffic, like when a construction worker has those signs they flip back and forth between "stop" and "go" (or heck, they just drop the sign and wave you by). 4. Knowing the difference between stopped traffic where you should wait (i.e. traffic is just really slow) or move around (i.e. someone is unloading). That is, it seems like the state-of-the-art will allow self-driving ASSISTED vehicles in the pretty near future, but completely self-driving vehicles, that can handle all the complex, messy urban situations that people can, is not on the near horizon.