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I saw many people using this argument of the "small value but for many people". But I think we should take in account also the replaceability factor: the hundre

by Udik 12y ago

I saw many people using this argument of the "small value but for many people". But I think we should take in account also the replaceability factor: the hundreds of millions of users of Whatsapp could switch at any time, with no effort and no loss, to any other messaging application. There's plenty of them. As for the actual revenues of Whatsapp, they're approximately 0.

jpatokal 12y ago
In the same way that people could switch from Gmail or Facebook "at any time with no effort and loss"? Don't underestimate the network factor here.
- rblatz 12y ago
  Right, so glad that everyone is still on AIM, ICQ, or even, BBM. They had huge networks, and barely anyone uses them now. This market has proven multiple times that users will switch and it will happen suddenly.n especially if whatsapp tries too hard to monetize them.
  - seanflyon 12y ago
    If WhatsApp tries too hard to monetize, it will not go well for them. If they try just hard enough, they might make quite a bit of money.
- _nedR 12y ago
  You couldn't possibly compare Gmail or Facebook with Whatsapp. For many people, their Gmail id is their sole or primary id on the internet, used to identify them to scores of websites. It is their official online point of contact for various aspects of their online lives including their career, banking, social networking etc. Facebook is their online social profile, which they spent thousands of hours curating. Your Whatsapp id is merely your Phone no., (which was Whatsapp's main selling point). All interactions in Whatsapp are ephemeral in nature - Most people delete their conversations when their phone memory gets full. Compared to gmail and facebook, the switching costs are practically zero.
robryan 12y ago
Don't they need Whatsapp though to get messages from others that use it? The network effect is strong and it is unlikely someone can make an orders to magnitude improvement on messaging software the compels people to switch. Barring major missteps they can be reasonably sure to keep a hold on the market.
- Udik 12y ago
  Hmm. I started messaging using ICQ, then probably Yahoo, then microsoft messenger, now it's Skype. The first three offered exactly the same service. The other day I tried to convince someone to contact me on Whatsapp but he has already Viber. The network effect doesn't seem to be that strong, and sudden, catastrophic network switches happen all the time.

by Udik 12y ago

jpatokal 12y ago

In the same way that people could switch from Gmail or Facebook "at any time with no effort and loss"? Don't underestimate the network factor here.

rblatz 12y ago
Right, so glad that everyone is still on AIM, ICQ, or even, BBM. They had huge networks, and barely anyone uses them now. This market has proven multiple times that users will switch and it will happen suddenly.n especially if whatsapp tries too hard to monetize them.
- seanflyon 12y ago
  If WhatsApp tries too hard to monetize, it will not go well for them. If they try just hard enough, they might make quite a bit of money.
_nedR 12y ago
You couldn't possibly compare Gmail or Facebook with Whatsapp. For many people, their Gmail id is their sole or primary id on the internet, used to identify them to scores of websites. It is their official online point of contact for various aspects of their online lives including their career, banking, social networking etc. Facebook is their online social profile, which they spent thousands of hours curating. Your Whatsapp id is merely your Phone no., (which was Whatsapp's main selling point). All interactions in Whatsapp are ephemeral in nature - Most people delete their conversations when their phone memory gets full. Compared to gmail and facebook, the switching costs are practically zero.

robryan 12y ago

Don't they need Whatsapp though to get messages from others that use it? The network effect is strong and it is unlikely someone can make an orders to magnitude improvement on messaging software the compels people to switch. Barring major missteps they can be reasonably sure to keep a hold on the market.

Udik 12y ago
Hmm. I started messaging using ICQ, then probably Yahoo, then microsoft messenger, now it's Skype. The first three offered exactly the same service. The other day I tried to convince someone to contact me on Whatsapp but he has already Viber. The network effect doesn't seem to be that strong, and sudden, catastrophic network switches happen all the time.