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Okay, I watched a bit of the video now (thanks for linking to it). I still don't see what's so ambiguous about "stay short Treasury bonds", he says it quite dir
by conistonwater 12y ago
Okay, I watched a bit of the video now (thanks for linking to it). I still don't see what's so ambiguous about "stay short Treasury bonds", he says it quite directly, and as far as I can tell from the video he means it, but maybe I'm wrong. He also says in that video says you should buy deep out of money options on gold/other metals in case hyperinflation happens.
So first, as far as I can tell, he really did say and mean those things.
Second, the suggestions, the bet on rising interest rates, as well as the bet on hyperinflation, are, I think, ignoring basic macroeconomics, and they pretend that some really implausible outcomes can happen. Maybe you would hedge the bet, and have other trades that bound your losses, but they would still have lost money. I don't think it matters that much that with a cleverer execution they would have lost less money. The point is that they were wrong in the first place.
- Tycho 12y agoYou talk about basic macroeconomics, the way someone might talk about 'basic finance.' I think that's the whole problem...