4 ms·
To make sure we're talking about the same thing; the pink line in the second graph on the techcrunch article is what you're talking about when "the bubble goes
by gee_totes 12y ago
To make sure we're talking about the same thing; the pink line in the second graph on the techcrunch article is what you're talking about when "the bubble goes parabolic".
That pink line represents the number of seed deals completed, not the amount of money in the system.
Unfortunately, I cannot download the original dataset that Mattermark is using, but using a dataset from Pricewaterhouse Coopers[1], and data from FRED[2], I have run some statistical analysis using R.
My results are here: http://imgur.com/a/eFzs1 http://imgur.com/a/eFzs1
In short, the only statistical correlation I can find between QE and Seed capital is a negative one, which would contradict your original hypothesis.
[0]https://medium.com/mattermark-daily/why-is-the-number-of-seed-rounds-raised-in-q4-2014-down-30-38627517ca4e https://medium.com/mattermark-daily/why-is-the-number-of-see...
[1]http://www.pwcmoneytree.com/HistoricTrends/CustomQueryHistoricTrend http://www.pwcmoneytree.com/HistoricTrends/CustomQueryHistor...
[2]http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=MBST# http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=MBST#
- hnnewguy 12y ago>My results are here Why would you compare quarterly values of seed money to a cumulative total (QE) and expect a correlation? They are completely different series. Try doing a running total for the seed money and the graph will look different. The first and third graphs don't make sense for this reason. The second graph is better, and you can see there is some correlation. Did you test for lags, or do you assume that QE money would flow instantly into the coffers of institutional investors? I applaud your effort, but there is more to this analysis than overlaying two graphs. You need to understand the data.