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"last year it performed even worse than the Russian rouble and Ukrainian hryvnia" A number of journalists have relayed this claim lately, but I find it disinge
by mrb 12y ago
"last year it performed even worse than the Russian rouble and Ukrainian hryvnia"
A number of journalists have relayed this claim lately, but I find it disingenuous as it avoid talking about the real reason (volatility) and it hides the big picture (Bitcoin is up 3200% over the last two years [1]).
Otherwise, this is a good article about mining. But one comment I would like to make is that people, like this author, sometimes claim Bitcoin's mining consume a lot of electricity. But compared to what? It is fair to compare it to the many data centers owned and operated by credit card processors, banks, and all sorts of financial companies, but only to the portion of these data centers that fulfill a role roughly comparable to Bitcoin: processing transactions, verifying fraud, etc. Let's do some math: North American data center market power consumption is about 12 gigawatt [2]. I don't know what the world data center power consumption is, but let's assume ~3x that, or 30 gigawatt [3]. Let's assume that 1/3 of these data centers belong to financial companies, so 10 gigawatt are consumed by financial data centers. If half of these data centers are used to process transactions and for anti-fraud purposes, that's 5 gigawatt. By comparison, Bitcoin's mining operations worldwide are estimated to consume 150 megawatt [4]. So Bitcoin mining uses 3% of the electricity of what financial companies use for similar purposes.
[1] From $6 in January 2013 to $200 as of today: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg730ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg730ztgSzm1g10z...
[2] http://www.datacenterdynamics.com/focus/archive/2014/01/15-growth-forecast-north-america-colocation-market-2014-0 http://www.datacenterdynamics.com/focus/archive/2014/01/15-g...
[3] 30 gigawatt is also approximately in line with the often quoted estimate that data centers use ~1% of the world's electricity (~1% of 2500 gigawatt).
[4] http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1323522 http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1323522 - the global hashrate has increased by 50% since this article was written (~200 petahash/sec in August 2014, to ~300 petahash/sec today) but at the same time hardware efficiency (hash/sec per watt) has increased, so the ballpark number is correct. In fact the economist article also estimates it at ~135,000 average american homes, or 168 megawatt (1 average home = 1250 watt).
Edit: @the_mitsuhiko: By definition, "volatility" is a price variation over time, regardless if it is consistent or not.
- the_mitsuhiko 12y ago> but I find it disingenuous as it avoid talking about the real reason (volatility) and it hides the big picture I don't think a consistent drop over a year can be attributed to volatility.
- bdcravens 12y agoIn all these discussions of Bitcoin's price over N months, I don't see anyone consider this: 2 years is 44% of its tradable life (first trades on Mt. Gox were in July 2010). You might as well talk about Apple's performance since 2000, which is 44% of its tradable life. In which case, you see similar returns (almost 3000%) So if Bitcoin goes down to $30, that's an amazing investment, right? After all, that's a 500% ROI!
- cgjaro 12y agoNobody talks about "percentage of tradable life" because this is a pointless metric. You don't see banks publishing prospectus saying "this investment gained x% over y% of its tradable life". %/year is what matters to all investors. > So if Bitcoin goes down to $30, that's an amazing investment, right? After all, that's a 500% ROI! Absolutely. Buying at $6 in january 2013, and selling even at $30 would be a 500% ROI and a great investment over 2 years. What is your point?
- bdcravens 12y ago"%/year is what matters to all investors" Exactly. Only one in Bitcoin in January 2013 were those who were really deep in the community. Investors don't care what the price was before they purchased.
- jgalt212 12y agoyes, but drawdowns are very important to investors as well, not just ROI. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drawdown_(economics) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drawdown_(economics)