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That links says that temperatures are rising "at an average rate of 0.16°C (0.28°F) per decade since 1970." So, "it also false to say that the warming is on pa
by phaemon 12y ago
That links says that temperatures are rising "at an average rate of 0.16°C (0.28°F) per decade since 1970."
So, "it also false to say that the warming is on pace for even a full degree of warming by the end of the century" is completely wrong.
- joshuahedlund 12y agoThe "average rate per decade" is highly variable depending on your starting decade. The average "pace" of the last 4.5 decades is 0.16 C per decade, the "current" annual "pace" of the last 10 years is less than 0.01 C per year. Edit: here you can play with years and rate-per-decade trends: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global
- phaemon 12y agoThe last 10 years are far too short a time period to establish anything due to the variability of the data. If you include more data you get a more accurate result, so do that. 30 years is the usual minimum period considered for climate, so what's your purpose in choosing something considerably shorter? Edit: That plotting page is quite nice and illustrates my point well. Plot the years 1987 - 1996. Notice that the trend for that decade is actually down. And yet, add another 10 years to take it to 1987-2006 and it gets pretty close to the 30 year trend.