4 ms·

Yes, yes it is--but your off-hand estimate does not do the situation any justice.

by mslate 12y ago

toomuchtodo 12y ago
My "off-hand estimate" is from multiple sources: http://www.wired.com/2015/01/rode-500-miles-self-driving-car-saw-future-boring/ http://www.wired.com/2015/01/rode-500-miles-self-driving-car... http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-on-the-future-of-driving-2014-10 http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-on-the-future-of-dr... http://www.theverge.com/2014/9/22/6828161/california-permits-self-driving-cars-google-audi-mercedes-benz http://www.theverge.com/2014/9/22/6828161/california-permits... The idea of you driving your car is essentially dead. Vehicle miles driven per year is already stagnent due to boomers retiring and millennials not having the same inclination for cars as generations past have. Passenger cars sit idle 95% of the time. Its not going to take many autonomous vehicles to replace the current fleet with existing utilization so low.
- slayed0 12y ago
  Although slightly off topic, you are missing a key point when you bring up the idle time of passenger cars. Passenger travel is not uniformly distributed throughout the day. There are peak times where extremely high bandwidth (everyone gets in their car in the morning to go to work and then again to go home at ~8am and ~5pm respectively) is needed. While ride shares will be easier with autonomous cars, we still cannot reduce current fleets by the amount you are hinting at with your '95%' estimate.
- smackfu 12y ago
  I would expect it to go like electric cars. Maybe in 5-10 years you will be able to buy a high-end one, but the time to a majority having one will be double that, at least.
  - toomuchtodo 12y ago
    If I can get a self-driving Model S on Uber whenever I want, why would I buy a car?
    - smackfu 12y ago
      Yeah, when that day comes, it will be nice. We just disagree on how soon it will be.
- mslate 12y ago
  Personal car insurance services will be a multi-billion dollar marketplace beyond 7 years from now. On the face of it, it sounds like you are steering the conversation towards what you'd rather talk about, which is fine. Just be forthright about it. There are bigger threats to the profitability of car insurance lead gen in the short and long term.
- Someone 12y ago
  Many people want to be without the company of strangers in their commute => a self-driving car will, on average, not carry more passengers than cars do now. Most people want/have to arrive at work in a relatively short timeframe (7-9 or thereabouts) Combining that with a 30 minute commute, the average autonomous car will be able to drive 2-3 people to and from work each day. It also will have to drive 1.5-2.5 times the distance per passenger (into town, back to pick up the second passenger, into town again for two passengers, another round trip for the third) I think that will be a net win, but it will be less than that 95% idle figure hints at. That net win will decrease traffic jams tremendously, though. It is anybody's guess what that will mean. On the one hand, ride times could go down, and automated cars could be able to make another round trip during peak hours. On the other hand, people could move farther out into the suburbs, offsetting that. That is a serious possibility, as you could start working/shaving/brushing your teeth/reading/playing on your Xbox during your commute. If that happens, chances are that those who can afford it will want to own their own self-driving car, so that they can stock it with things they may want to use during their commute. I think the latter is a serious possibility. Because of that, I am not sure we will see a decrease in the number of cars.

Yes, yes it is--but your off-hand estimate does not do the situation any justice.

by mslate 12y ago

Yes, yes it is--but your off-hand estimate does not do the situation any justice.

My "off-hand estimate" is from multiple sources: http://www.wired.com/2015/01/rode-500-miles-self-driving-car-saw-future-boring/ http://www.wired.com/2015/01/rode-500-miles-self-driving-car... http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-on-the-future-of-driving-2014-10 http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-on-the-future-of-dr... http://www.theverge.com/2014/9/22/6828161/california-permits-self-driving-cars-google-audi-mercedes-benz http://www.theverge.com/2014/9/22/6828161/california-permits... The idea of you driving your car is essentially dead. Vehicle miles driven per year is already stagnent due to boomers retiring and millennials not having the same inclination for cars as generations past have. Passenger cars sit idle 95% of the time. Its not going to take many autonomous vehicles to replace the current fleet with existing utilization so low.

slayed0 12y ago
Although slightly off topic, you are missing a key point when you bring up the idle time of passenger cars. Passenger travel is not uniformly distributed throughout the day. There are peak times where extremely high bandwidth (everyone gets in their car in the morning to go to work and then again to go home at ~8am and ~5pm respectively) is needed. While ride shares will be easier with autonomous cars, we still cannot reduce current fleets by the amount you are hinting at with your '95%' estimate.
smackfu 12y ago
I would expect it to go like electric cars. Maybe in 5-10 years you will be able to buy a high-end one, but the time to a majority having one will be double that, at least.
- toomuchtodo 12y ago
  If I can get a self-driving Model S on Uber whenever I want, why would I buy a car?
  - smackfu 12y ago
    Yeah, when that day comes, it will be nice. We just disagree on how soon it will be.
mslate 12y ago
Personal car insurance services will be a multi-billion dollar marketplace beyond 7 years from now. On the face of it, it sounds like you are steering the conversation towards what you'd rather talk about, which is fine. Just be forthright about it. There are bigger threats to the profitability of car insurance lead gen in the short and long term.
Someone 12y ago
Many people want to be without the company of strangers in their commute => a self-driving car will, on average, not carry more passengers than cars do now. Most people want/have to arrive at work in a relatively short timeframe (7-9 or thereabouts) Combining that with a 30 minute commute, the average autonomous car will be able to drive 2-3 people to and from work each day. It also will have to drive 1.5-2.5 times the distance per passenger (into town, back to pick up the second passenger, into town again for two passengers, another round trip for the third) I think that will be a net win, but it will be less than that 95% idle figure hints at. That net win will decrease traffic jams tremendously, though. It is anybody's guess what that will mean. On the one hand, ride times could go down, and automated cars could be able to make another round trip during peak hours. On the other hand, people could move farther out into the suburbs, offsetting that. That is a serious possibility, as you could start working/shaving/brushing your teeth/reading/playing on your Xbox during your commute. If that happens, chances are that those who can afford it will want to own their own self-driving car, so that they can stock it with things they may want to use during their commute. I think the latter is a serious possibility. Because of that, I am not sure we will see a decrease in the number of cars.