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"I must say I'm not advocating snap judgement at all. I just think it is very common (as Kahnemann states). What he states as an ideal doesn't necessarily make
by Fede_V 12y ago
"I must say I'm not advocating snap judgement at all. I just think it is very common (as Kahnemann states). What he states as an ideal doesn't necessarily make an awful lot of difference in many situations; the snap judgement can very often be the same as the careful one (though external factors that partly force/aid preselection bias things greatly in this respect)."
Do you have any evidence at all to back this up? In general, people think they are much better at making decisions than they are, and unless you actually measure things empirically and track false positives/negatives, you are likely to fool yourself.
- RobertKerans 12y agoI'm extremely sure that we do get false positives/negatives. Nevertheless I believe the external factors swing toward it not mattering an enormous amount. I'm more than willing to be proved wrong. As I said, we do very carefully assess relevant skills; it just doesn't seem to make a lot of difference to the end decision. This can obviously be attributed completely to bias, to retroactively reassessing, but I don't think that's correct. The crux is a. can I get on with this person, b. can I sit beside this person for 8 hours a day, c. do they want to learn/can they teach us. The technical side is less important than these things, and is easier to filter in many respects.