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> I have no idea what the point of this post was. Well, as in my post elsewhere in this thread, the title of this thread is just flatly, literally wrong, as i
by graycat 12y ago
> I have no idea what the point of this post was.
Well, as in my post elsewhere in this thread, the
title of this thread is just flatly, literally wrong,
as in not true, as in false. But, I will try to
explain, maybe, "the point" of the original post:
In venture capital, the
claim in the title is commonly made: So, maybe,
"the point" is just to discuss the claim and
related thoughts.
But, he continues and makes another mistake:
He has,
> The answer I'm looking for is nearly always "of course someone else has tried this before."
I see two things wrong here:
(1) With the qualification "nearly always",
along with his comment about "lazy", we have
to conclude that he's been talking to the
wrong entrepreneurs.
(2) His "this" as an "idea" is wrong:
As we have covered on HN before, it appears that
in Silicon Valley what is meant by an "idea"
is just some vague, short, maybe one sentence
statement of what the product/service would look
like to a customer on a first glance. So, with
this meaning of an idea there is nothing to
patent, protect with a trade secret, use as
Ph.D. dissertation, publish in a peer-reviewed
journal of original research in, say, a STEM
field, etc. Or, an idea is like "I want to
fly to the moon" where we can ask who the
heck first thought of that and then conclude
who the heck cares.
So, for people doing advanced work in STEM
fields and looking for business success with,
also, say, a technological barrier to entry,
his concept of an idea is nearly trivial.
He's got an entrepreneur and wants to
talk trivialities? Gads.
His mistake is to be looking for something
nearly trivial. Instead for ideas
he should be looking
for something, to borrow, "new, correct, and
significant", and, of course, for
start-ups how to make money.
So, in his work with ideas, he's looking
for the wrong stuff. In case I rub
some fur the wrong way, I highly value
and respect my view of ideas -- e.g., my
Ph.D. dissertation was mostly just ideas,
and they weren't just one or a few sentences
and trivial.
More broadly I have another concern for
information technology start-ups, venture
capital, and our economy more generally:
In short, the concern is that we are shooting
ourselves in the gut. Or, earlier this week
I happened to look at the Web site of Polaris
Partners, and there I saw the backgrounds of
the partners: Several, maybe all, the partners
interested in biotechnology had biotechnology
Ph.D. degrees. No partner interested in
information had a Ph.D. degree. And that
Web site is not the only such.
In my career, nearly always I had my
technical work, and since I quite mowing
grass for a few dollars as a teenager
all of my work has been technical, reviewed
by someone who had the qualifications to understand
it and did understand it.
Then I looked at the
Web sites of some venture firms and the backgrounds
of the partners interested in information
technology: I have a tough time finding a
Ph.D. or even a BS STEM major. Gotta tell ya,
it would be one heck of an amazing BA major in
English and history who would or could
understand or review any of my technical work.
Several professions have professional peer review,
and I doubt that any of them, law, medicine,
engineering, tenure committees, have BA English and
history majors.
But, wait, it gets worse: If I accept an equity
check I will report to a Board of Directors (BoD)
that can fire me at anytime for any reason or
no reason, deny me my unvested stock,
get me in hot water with my illiquid
vested stock,
etc.
So, first BoD scenario: The company is up and
running, good revenue, first earnings, and
I, as founder, CEO, come to the BoD meeting
with the budget and list of projects.
There is a major new project, and I cover
how it will go. It's based on some
original work, I did, in applied mathematics
with some advanced prerequisites. Essentially
all of my high confidence in the project is
based squarely on the mathematics. So, I cover
the mathematics. The project has to do with,
say, ad targeting?
As I learned as a first year graduate student
in seminars with some of the best mathematicians
in the world, there is little so painful as
listening to and trying to understand
some advanced mathematics while missing
most of the prerequisites -- were talking
an unanesthetized, upper molar root canal
procedure along with a barbed wire enema
while being flogged with a cat of nine tails and
standing on a charcoal fire. What
the fun in that? I can see
nearly all the English and history majors
running, screaming from the board room
directly, do not pass GO, do not collect
$100, to the little boys room for
blowing all tubes at both ends. Some
BoD meeting. I see that disaster coming
right at me like an 80 MPH freight train
50 yards away. Bummer. BoD meeting over.
In information technology venture firms,
can we have some basic technical competence,
please, pretty please?
Else that must have
been one heck of an English and history major.
Gee, they covered the Gleason bound
for heap sort and O(n ln(n)) notation right along
with Hamlet? And they explained the importance
of P vs NP just before the Council of Trent?
And cache concurrency in multi-core processors
was, sure, along with Henry James, 'The Golden
Bowl' -- from the Prince. For the Internet,
they connected that with the
principle of The Great Natural Order?
Recursion in software connected with
the "child is the father of the man"?
And in the paper I published solving an old
problem in the constraint qualifications
of the Kuhn-Tucker conditions, I was not
the first with the ideas because
Sir Francis Bacon just had to have
known all that all along? And that every
closed, convex subset has a unique
element of minimum norm, that was
from Hammurabi, right?
Where does our technology get such nonsense?
Does this really mean that soon we will
be doing abdominal surgery with
smoking incense and rusty pocket knives?
That's enough -- I'm going to upchuck.
- lmeyerov 12y agoI 100% agree with the title and 90% disagree with the reasoning. In doing a Ph.D., it's surprising that you didn't find that most ideas are incremental -- most bibliographies are long! I found that to largely carry through to startups. In science and in startups, that question is a short-cut for "did you truly check related work, and as anything important typically has some and my job requires me to keep up-to-date on that, distill that for me: what's our common ground and what's your special sauce?" I had that exact conversation just a few hours ago. It wasn't offensive; it let us more quickly get to the fun stuff.
- graycat 12y ago> that question The title was stated as a claim, not a question, and an English major should be able to be clear on the difference. While there really are some ideas that really are new, correct, and significant, your restatement of the title, with your considerable revision, is much better, appropriate, and productive. I omitted some of what the heck I want in a start-up: With a biomedical analogy, I want a safe, effective, cheap, side effect free, one pill taken once cure for any cancer, with, of course, necessarily, some, let's call them, ideas that are most definitely "new, correct, and significant". Then product-market fit and both virality and traction growing quickly and business success will be low risk and high ROI. Sadly we'd literally have to hire security at the lab door. I also omitted: For a simpler explanation, and one more appropriate for information technology, I want to start with a problem to be solved -- in Silicon Valley speak, maybe that's their version of an idea. I want a problem something like curing cancer -- a biggie where there is no doubt, no question, 100% certainty, that the first good or a much better solution will definitely be a must-have for enough people and earnings per person to zoom past $1 billion market capitalization like a US ABM rocket passes 100,000 feet up. No more question about product-market fit than for that cancer pill. Then the challenge is how the heck to get that solution? But, definitely, no doubt, get the solution and collect the big bucks. No doubt. But, likely the problem's tough to do as in no one has even as much as a weak little hollow hint of a tiny clue how to solve it. They can think and think and think, hit the library, etc. and come up empty, sadder but wiser, have found 10,000 things that won't work. And I want low risk. Right, big, tough problem no one knows how to solve, high payoff, low risk. And when I get the solution, I want to know with rock solid certainty that I really do have the solution. Again, given the problem, the only thing left to get the big bucks is the solution as described. Maybe we can't get the solution (the solution to the cancer pill is still waiting) in which case maybe pick another problem. But if we do get the solution, then we do get the big bucks -- no doubt. Basically have turned the whole project into just get the solution and know that we really have it. Impossible? Not at all. Again, with this approach, as in the cancer pill, all we need is the solution and know it's good. How to get the solution? Sure, now, be technical. Now we need a leading example: Ike had a problem; he wanted to know what the Russkies were up to. He tried the U-2, and it got shot down. So, now what? Ah, a problem! Right, it's not a commercial problem, but now we're into just the solution part where we want to be technical. So, give a call, right, who else, to Kelly Johnson at Lockheed. He shows up with an armload of papers. So, there is titanium and a new engine from the Florida unit of Pratt and Whitney, an engine that is an ordinary turbojet until about Mach 2.0 at which time it is just a ramjet good for, say, Mach 3+ (turbojet engines tend to get too hot even trying to go that fast, e.g., the MIG 25). Then, also have 80,000 feet, and a little math will show that tough to shoot it down. Fly for 2000+ miles without refueling, and now we've got something Ike will want. How to do that? Will it work? Okay, just check Kelly's engineering. Checked! Project approved. Now: Right, risk over, the rest is routine, low risk, high payoff, and we get the SR-71. For at least the last 70 years we in the US have had many projects that have closely followed just this pattern: Given a big problem, look for a technical solution, find a candidate, check it. Pass the check and, e.g., get the F-117 (Saddam, sorry you wasted all the money on air defense -- you never even scratched a single F-117), .... Okay, for now, for the technical part, exploit Moore's law, available infrastructure software, and the Internet. Given that, have the problem be to deliver valuable information of some kind. So, the solution is to be a case of information technology. So, now how to get the solution and know it's good? Sure: Especially appropriate for information technology, turn the task of getting the solution into a math problem where when we check the math we are rock solidly sure we have a solution to the technical problem and the last we need for the big bucks -- all risk gone, the rest is just routine, low risk, and high payoff. Thankfully for US national security the US DoD believes this approach and is really good at it. Sadly for our economy, Silicon Valley, in spite of its origins, does not and, instead, wants traction for a smartphone app for, say, teenage girl gossip.