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I suspect that the national market for legal cannabis is likely maybe ~$25 billion. Cannabis is inexpensive to produce. Easy to stores and ship. The price will

by zmanian 12y ago

I suspect that the national market for legal cannabis is likely maybe ~$25 billion. Cannabis is inexpensive to produce. Easy to stores and ship. The price will be driven more by taxation than production costs. It just seems like too small a market for venture capital.

TillE 12y ago
There's definitely room for premium cannabis. Even in the black market, there's been a ton of interest in the breeding and marketing of new varieties (aka "strains"). People pay attention to stuff like the Cannabis Cup. If I had the resources and some legal assurances, I'd be acquiring all the best genetics, growing them organically, and marketing the hell out of it. Creating a quality brand that people would trust. With VC funding, you could probably acquire some of the best breeders in the US and maybe even the Netherlands. That would give you serious cachet among connoisseurs.
- Phlarp 12y ago
  This is spot on. I could easily see an industry similar to craft beer emerging.
- zmanian 12y ago
  Harborside has been running the most sophisticated operation in the world and they have pretty much been giving away their knowledge base.
greggarious 12y ago
Couldn't the same argument be made for booze? I forsee a future where marijuana is heaving taxed, and the resources previously given to the DEA to combat weed are given to the BATFM (Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Marijuana) to go after untaxed marijuana.
coffeemug 12y ago
Many technology companies naturally tend toward monopolies (which is one of Peter Thiel's investment theses). If the same is true for cannabis, and you can get a monopoly in a ~$25B market, you've got yourself one of the most valuable companies in the world.
- zmanian 12y ago
  There are maybe opportunities to build a monopoly in the retail space but barriers to entry seem low in most situations.
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]
- fludlight 12y ago
  More likely he's eyeing the tremendous brand loyalty in cigarettes.
metaphorm 12y ago
I think your estimate is way too low. The alcoholic beverage market in the U.S. has sales of something like $190 billion annually [1]. I think with legal marijuana a lot of people who would otherwise not be willing to use it will definitely be willing to. To a large extent recreational marijuana use and recreational drinking overlap. I would definitely consider the alcohol market to be a good indicator of potential market size for marijuana. I don't think marijuana will get up to $190 billion or anything, and especially not in the short term. I do however think that its worth quite a bit more than $25 billion. And that's just recreational marijuana. There is an entire separate market for medical applications that might be quite a lot as well. ----------- 1. http://www.parkstreet.com/industry/alcoholic-beverage-market-overview/ http://www.parkstreet.com/industry/alcoholic-beverage-market...

by zmanian 12y ago

TillE 12y ago

There's definitely room for premium cannabis. Even in the black market, there's been a ton of interest in the breeding and marketing of new varieties (aka "strains"). People pay attention to stuff like the Cannabis Cup. If I had the resources and some legal assurances, I'd be acquiring all the best genetics, growing them organically, and marketing the hell out of it. Creating a quality brand that people would trust. With VC funding, you could probably acquire some of the best breeders in the US and maybe even the Netherlands. That would give you serious cachet among connoisseurs.

Phlarp 12y ago
This is spot on. I could easily see an industry similar to craft beer emerging.
zmanian 12y ago
Harborside has been running the most sophisticated operation in the world and they have pretty much been giving away their knowledge base.

greggarious 12y ago

Couldn't the same argument be made for booze? I forsee a future where marijuana is heaving taxed, and the resources previously given to the DEA to combat weed are given to the BATFM (Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Marijuana) to go after untaxed marijuana.

coffeemug 12y ago

Many technology companies naturally tend toward monopolies (which is one of Peter Thiel's investment theses). If the same is true for cannabis, and you can get a monopoly in a ~$25B market, you've got yourself one of the most valuable companies in the world.

zmanian 12y ago
There are maybe opportunities to build a monopoly in the retail space but barriers to entry seem low in most situations.
deleted 12y ago
[deleted]
fludlight 12y ago
More likely he's eyeing the tremendous brand loyalty in cigarettes.

metaphorm 12y ago

I think your estimate is way too low. The alcoholic beverage market in the U.S. has sales of something like $190 billion annually [1]. I think with legal marijuana a lot of people who would otherwise not be willing to use it will definitely be willing to. To a large extent recreational marijuana use and recreational drinking overlap. I would definitely consider the alcohol market to be a good indicator of potential market size for marijuana. I don't think marijuana will get up to $190 billion or anything, and especially not in the short term. I do however think that its worth quite a bit more than $25 billion. And that's just recreational marijuana. There is an entire separate market for medical applications that might be quite a lot as well. ----------- 1. http://www.parkstreet.com/industry/alcoholic-beverage-market-overview/ http://www.parkstreet.com/industry/alcoholic-beverage-market...