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Three men went off on a sailboat together, a physicist, a chemist, and an economist. Unfortunately they ran into a storm and the boat was wrecked on an uninhabi
by joez 17y ago
Three men went off on a sailboat together, a physicist, a chemist, and an economist. Unfortunately they ran into a storm and the boat was wrecked on an uninhabited island. The only food they were able to rescue from the wreckage was a case of baked beans. As they got hungry, they began to wrestle with the problem of how to open the bean cans. The physicist said "I'll climb a tree and throw a can onto a rock and it'll split open." The others didn't much like this idea because they thought the beans would just splatter everywhere. The chemist said "We can soak the cans in salt water and they'll rust through." The others didn't much like this idea because it would take too long. Then the economist said "Hay--no problem, we'll just assume a can opener."
Economics should always be applied to real life with many caveats. It's been a while since I took my semesters of game theory but here's some brief problems with real life applications.
One dangerous assumption in the hoteling model is that there are no costs to changing your position. That is, the two parties will keep relocating until they're at the Nash equilibrium (neither party can benefit from relocating). This is just plain wrong in real life. Political candidates lose a lot of credibility when they reverse stances on something. It is true that after primaries, candidates then to become more moderate but most other applications of hoteling are dangerous. (Edit: same goes for changing marketing stances, product positioning, pricing... etc.)
Removing relocation/repositioning costs illuminates another unrealistic assumption: there are only two players. If you have huge costs to relocating then you don't want to allow a competitor to come in and take your half of the market because he positioned himself right next to you (i.e. M, N, O). If you add in these two assumptions, players might actually want to have an agreement to separate such that any new entrant would not be able to gain as much profit as they are currently making (while still each controlling 1/2, (i.e. at .33 and .66 on the spectrum or something).
A third assumption is that it is a one dimensional world or that consumers judge choices only along one spectrum. If you add in that another competitors could compete not just on the "beach"... Or if a competitor could differentiate itself on a topic that consumers care about more (not all spectrums made equal)... Or spectrums change, the median consumer could shift from one year to another.
I could go on but the point is to not assume the can opener. In entrepreneurial terms, maybe all the competitors out there are "hoteling," could that be justification to be different? Purple Cow? Or maybe it is better to make a few consumers love you than many to just like you.
- lamby 17y agoAs a meta-comment, I liked your points but please hold the "humourous" story opener - we shouldn't need tricks to be engaged or convinced by your argument.
- mustpax 17y agoNot all rhetorical tools are tricks. Analogies can be informative when taken with a grain of salt. Presenting an analogy a joke is especially honest because invites the reader to not take the analogy too seriously. So I don't think the opener was a trick in a negative sense at all.
- radu_floricica 17y agoScience is made of small reproducible pieces. Yes, real world is more complicated, but what the article gives is a pertinent explanation to a certain case. When we have enough such "certain cases" completely understood we go to combining them, and then we have something useful. If you always work with the real world case you may get quicker results, but it will be statistics, not science.
- raquo 17y agoActually, the first major assumption in this particular model is that the demand will walk to the nearest outlet. Everything else - adding a second dimension, relocation costs, possibility of entry, first-mover advantages, prices, product quality, etc. - can be easily added to the model - just add a bunch of ratios and coefficients* to your equations. *The second major problem which this model does not suffer though is that when your model gets closer to reality, its predictions become highly dependent on many coefficients the true values of which you do not know most of the time.
- andylei 17y ago>> One dangerous assumption in the hoteling model is that there are no costs to changing your position location cost is not really necessary. think of this as a game that the ice cream sellers play before they locate. they figure, where do i place my hut to get the most business? it's at the center, no matter how many operators there are. >> another unrealistic assumption: there are only two players doesn't matter how many players there are. suppose there's one ice cream guy. where is he going to put his ice cream hut? in the center. let's say another one shows up. where is he going to put his hut? in the center. the logic repeats. >> A third assumption is that it is a one dimensional world or that consumers judge choices only along one spectrum yeah, this is a model for a perfectly competitive market. ice cream is a good example, as well as gas stations. this model is probably bad for products with lots of differentiation.