Don't underestimate how far you can get with simple Holt-Winters exponential smoothing to generate a forecast and then note deviations from same. With the Tayl

Don't underestimate how far you can get with simple Holt-Winters exponential smoothing to generate a forecast and then note deviations from same. With the Taylor (Taylor 2010) mods to same you can get up to three different types of seasons.