6 ms·

Schmidt: "Android Adoption Is About To Explode"

44 points by edw519 17y ago

CamperBob 17y ago
Translation: Our manufacturers are getting desperate, and are about to subsidize and/or give away a metric assload of phones to a lot of people who are too cheap to buy your apps.
- dminor 17y ago
  I think your translator is broken -- there's just a bunch of new Android phones all coming out at once, whereas before last month there was only the G1 on T-Mobile. Hence the explosion.
  - dminor 17y ago
    Here's Gartner's prediction of Android going from 2% to 14% by 2012: http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9139026/Android_to_grab_No._2_spot_by_2012_says_Gartner http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9139026/Android_to_gr... There may be as many as 40(!) phones coming out in 2010.
    - henrikschroder 17y ago
      Here's Gartner's prediction of everything: Growth! <insert picture of exponentially growing curve>
      - charltones 17y ago
        Did I imagine it, or was there a website posted here a while ago that tracked these kind of predictions against reality? I had a quick google for it but couldn't find it.
        cmalabs 17y ago
        You're thinking of http://wrongtomorrow.com/ http://wrongtomorrow.com/
    - blasdel 17y ago
      They said the exact same thing a year ago about the cornucopia of phones that would come out in 2009
- StrawberryFrog 17y ago
  Water runs downhill. The shiny proprietary awesome gadget that apple made last year had been duplicated this year, and that will be mass marketed in a dozen varieties next year. Apple is readying a new shiny proprietary awesome gadget. Water runs downhill.
symesc 17y ago
Google's profits were up 27% (as reported today) while Nokia was reporting a loss. I doubt anyone on this site finds this surprising. Google is doing what Google does, which is to say it brings its services to users and users use them. And all of it is subsidized by advertising. Google is playing a different game, and until someone starts challenging them they're going to continue to be adopted as the platform of choice for every market they're in. The only exception: Facebook.
- sahaj 17y ago
  The only exception: Facebook. let's wait for google wave to grow up.
- brandonkm 17y ago
  > The only exception: Facebook. To provide a little context, Googles revenue in the UK alone was $200 million more than Facebook's highest revenue reports ($500 million). http://investor.google.com/releases/2009Q3_google_earnings.html http://investor.google.com/releases/2009Q3_google_earnings.h... On earnings calls, every quarter, the report on revenue growth is centered around various metrics with search advertising. Search advertising continues to be the most profitable form of advertising on the web. Facebook has impressive statistics, but I don't see them challenging Google in any one of Google's core businesses. When Facebook becomes a public company and matures more and has a solid way of generating revenue then they might be in a position to challenge Google.
  - protomyth 17y ago
    If local search is going to be super valuable then I think and interesting challenger to Google's dominance would be one of the credit card companies. They already know all the merchants and take a very interesting part of Google's business like Craig's List did to the newspapers.
protomyth 17y ago
I would expect with all the revelations lately about Microsoft's behavior that a lot of the Windows Mobile licensees to take a look at coming out with an Android phone (since they cannot license Web OS or iPhone OS).
- WalterGR 17y ago
  > I would expect with all the revelations lately about Microsoft's behavior... What, in particular, are you talking about?
  - wglb 17y ago
    Perhaps he is referring to the sidekick/danger bump in the road wherin MS apparently lost all user data, but recovered it with heroic effort, gaining rather bad PR, and possibly strained vendor relationships.
    - WalterGR 17y ago
      > Perhaps he is referring to the sidekick/danger bump in the road... I thought that might be the case. > ...gaining... strained vendor relationships. With who, aside from T-mobile / Danger? If this incident is what the OP is talking about, I don't see how it's relevant for current or prospective Windows Mobile licensees.
  - protomyth 17y ago
    Sorry, posting as I was going out the door. The Sidekick disaster is a problem, but the first party phone referred to by jsz0 is probably a bigger issue. Think "Plays for Sure" vs. Zune.
    - deleted 17y ago
      [deleted]
- jsz0 17y ago
  The handset makers are hedging their bets with Android because they know Microsoft is interested in producing their own first party phone. When this happens it's likely Windows Mobile will become Microsoft's only licensed handset OS and will be neglected and forgotten in quick succession. Microsoft's handset would probably run a new, non-licensable, OS. The rumors that Microsoft's phone project is in trouble are non-sense. They could slap a dial-pad on the Zune software and ship a product in 6 months or less. It's definitely going to happen.
rauljara 17y ago
They would be fools to say anything else. What platform owners trying to attract developers would ever say, 'Our prospects look grim'? Not to say android won't continue to grow. Not to say they won't explode. Just to say, why would you put any stock in what Schmidt says? It's like asking Steve Jobs if his next product is going to be amazing, or a Goldman Sachs executive if he deserves his compensation.
deleted 17y ago
[deleted]
neovive 17y ago
With the new Verizon Android phones coming to market shortly, a key factor will be how many features does Verizon remove from the phone. The new Android phones are extremely powerful and Android provides an excellent platform to leverage the hardware. However, it's doubtful that Verizon will offer the new phones with full support for things such as free Maps/Navigation, free games, chat, etc -- since they charge quite a bit for these services on other phones. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out.
- kijiki 17y ago
  Verizon is getting better. They crippled the HTC Touch Pro horribly (including cutting its RAM in half for no good reason), just like most of their phones. But the HTC Touch Pro 2 came out completely unmolested. Hopefully this represents a change in strategy...
gcheong 17y ago
I think it would be great to have more competition in the smartphone marketplace. My concern as a developer is that with so many devices coming out can I be reasonably assured that any app I write for android will work on all devices as with the iPhone? I certainly cannot afford to buy 12 different phones. Sure, adroid is supposed to be the common OS but is it going to really work that way in practice?
- qeorge 17y ago
  You raise a good point, and in order for this to work they'll need to ensure a full suite of emulators are available for testing. Android already provides an emulator [1] that can be configured to match the target device, although I can't speak to its quality as I have not used it. Windows Mobile is in a similar position, and its SDK provides emulators for every phone you would want to test on. Phones differ so much in form factor alone that you really need to be testing individually for any phone in your target market anyway. Its a huge time-sink to be sure, but you won't be flying blind. [1] http://developer.android.com/guide/developing/tools/emulator.html http://developer.android.com/guide/developing/tools/emulator...
  - evgen 17y ago
    Its not just about being able to test (although I have serious doubts that any suite of emulators will be able to give anything more than a rough guess as to how an app will perform on a wide variety of potential platforms) but also about what features will be available, what APIs will work, and how much code you will have to write to deal with some funky condition on Vendor A's phone that makes it differ in some subtle way from Vendor B and C's phones. Eventually they will probably figure it out, but for the next year or so this game is going to make browser feature detection look like a walk in the park...
    - shimi 17y ago
      From I seen so far unless you're playing with low level stuff the software is consistent across the devices. For now Android is far from the J2ME scenario, let's hope it will stay that way.
rimantas 17y ago
Does "explode" mean that it will be fragmented to a zillion of unmanageable pieces? :(
thismat 17y ago
As a G1 owner (which I do love), I would love to get my hands on an HTC Hero and hack it to work on T-Mobile....I've never wanted to switch carriers until I was disappointed with the MyTouch (forgot the HTC hardware it runs on). I think T-Mobile could of done so much better by bringing in the slightly higher priced HTC Hero and kept the G1 as their entry level model.

44 points by edw519 17y ago

Translation: Our manufacturers are getting desperate, and are about to subsidize and/or give away a metric assload of phones to a lot of people who are too cheap to buy your apps.

dminor 17y ago
I think your translator is broken -- there's just a bunch of new Android phones all coming out at once, whereas before last month there was only the G1 on T-Mobile. Hence the explosion.
- dminor 17y ago
  Here's Gartner's prediction of Android going from 2% to 14% by 2012: http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9139026/Android_to_grab_No._2_spot_by_2012_says_Gartner http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9139026/Android_to_gr... There may be as many as 40(!) phones coming out in 2010.
  - henrikschroder 17y ago
    Here's Gartner's prediction of everything: Growth! <insert picture of exponentially growing curve>
    - charltones 17y ago
      Did I imagine it, or was there a website posted here a while ago that tracked these kind of predictions against reality? I had a quick google for it but couldn't find it.
      - cmalabs 17y ago
        You're thinking of http://wrongtomorrow.com/ http://wrongtomorrow.com/
  - blasdel 17y ago
    They said the exact same thing a year ago about the cornucopia of phones that would come out in 2009
StrawberryFrog 17y ago
Water runs downhill. The shiny proprietary awesome gadget that apple made last year had been duplicated this year, and that will be mass marketed in a dozen varieties next year. Apple is readying a new shiny proprietary awesome gadget. Water runs downhill.

symesc 17y ago

Google's profits were up 27% (as reported today) while Nokia was reporting a loss. I doubt anyone on this site finds this surprising. Google is doing what Google does, which is to say it brings its services to users and users use them. And all of it is subsidized by advertising. Google is playing a different game, and until someone starts challenging them they're going to continue to be adopted as the platform of choice for every market they're in. The only exception: Facebook.

sahaj 17y ago
The only exception: Facebook. let's wait for google wave to grow up.
brandonkm 17y ago
> The only exception: Facebook. To provide a little context, Googles revenue in the UK alone was $200 million more than Facebook's highest revenue reports ($500 million). http://investor.google.com/releases/2009Q3_google_earnings.html http://investor.google.com/releases/2009Q3_google_earnings.h... On earnings calls, every quarter, the report on revenue growth is centered around various metrics with search advertising. Search advertising continues to be the most profitable form of advertising on the web. Facebook has impressive statistics, but I don't see them challenging Google in any one of Google's core businesses. When Facebook becomes a public company and matures more and has a solid way of generating revenue then they might be in a position to challenge Google.
- protomyth 17y ago
  If local search is going to be super valuable then I think and interesting challenger to Google's dominance would be one of the credit card companies. They already know all the merchants and take a very interesting part of Google's business like Craig's List did to the newspapers.

protomyth 17y ago

I would expect with all the revelations lately about Microsoft's behavior that a lot of the Windows Mobile licensees to take a look at coming out with an Android phone (since they cannot license Web OS or iPhone OS).

WalterGR 17y ago
> I would expect with all the revelations lately about Microsoft's behavior... What, in particular, are you talking about?
- wglb 17y ago
  Perhaps he is referring to the sidekick/danger bump in the road wherin MS apparently lost all user data, but recovered it with heroic effort, gaining rather bad PR, and possibly strained vendor relationships.
  - WalterGR 17y ago
    > Perhaps he is referring to the sidekick/danger bump in the road... I thought that might be the case. > ...gaining... strained vendor relationships. With who, aside from T-mobile / Danger? If this incident is what the OP is talking about, I don't see how it's relevant for current or prospective Windows Mobile licensees.
- protomyth 17y ago
  Sorry, posting as I was going out the door. The Sidekick disaster is a problem, but the first party phone referred to by jsz0 is probably a bigger issue. Think "Plays for Sure" vs. Zune.
  - deleted 17y ago
    [deleted]
jsz0 17y ago
The handset makers are hedging their bets with Android because they know Microsoft is interested in producing their own first party phone. When this happens it's likely Windows Mobile will become Microsoft's only licensed handset OS and will be neglected and forgotten in quick succession. Microsoft's handset would probably run a new, non-licensable, OS. The rumors that Microsoft's phone project is in trouble are non-sense. They could slap a dial-pad on the Zune software and ship a product in 6 months or less. It's definitely going to happen.

rauljara 17y ago

They would be fools to say anything else. What platform owners trying to attract developers would ever say, 'Our prospects look grim'? Not to say android won't continue to grow. Not to say they won't explode. Just to say, why would you put any stock in what Schmidt says? It's like asking Steve Jobs if his next product is going to be amazing, or a Goldman Sachs executive if he deserves his compensation.

deleted 17y ago

[deleted]

neovive 17y ago

With the new Verizon Android phones coming to market shortly, a key factor will be how many features does Verizon remove from the phone. The new Android phones are extremely powerful and Android provides an excellent platform to leverage the hardware. However, it's doubtful that Verizon will offer the new phones with full support for things such as free Maps/Navigation, free games, chat, etc -- since they charge quite a bit for these services on other phones. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out.

kijiki 17y ago
Verizon is getting better. They crippled the HTC Touch Pro horribly (including cutting its RAM in half for no good reason), just like most of their phones. But the HTC Touch Pro 2 came out completely unmolested. Hopefully this represents a change in strategy...

gcheong 17y ago

I think it would be great to have more competition in the smartphone marketplace. My concern as a developer is that with so many devices coming out can I be reasonably assured that any app I write for android will work on all devices as with the iPhone? I certainly cannot afford to buy 12 different phones. Sure, adroid is supposed to be the common OS but is it going to really work that way in practice?

qeorge 17y ago
You raise a good point, and in order for this to work they'll need to ensure a full suite of emulators are available for testing. Android already provides an emulator [1] that can be configured to match the target device, although I can't speak to its quality as I have not used it. Windows Mobile is in a similar position, and its SDK provides emulators for every phone you would want to test on. Phones differ so much in form factor alone that you really need to be testing individually for any phone in your target market anyway. Its a huge time-sink to be sure, but you won't be flying blind. [1] http://developer.android.com/guide/developing/tools/emulator.html http://developer.android.com/guide/developing/tools/emulator...
- evgen 17y ago
  Its not just about being able to test (although I have serious doubts that any suite of emulators will be able to give anything more than a rough guess as to how an app will perform on a wide variety of potential platforms) but also about what features will be available, what APIs will work, and how much code you will have to write to deal with some funky condition on Vendor A's phone that makes it differ in some subtle way from Vendor B and C's phones. Eventually they will probably figure it out, but for the next year or so this game is going to make browser feature detection look like a walk in the park...
  - shimi 17y ago
    From I seen so far unless you're playing with low level stuff the software is consistent across the devices. For now Android is far from the J2ME scenario, let's hope it will stay that way.

rimantas 17y ago

Does "explode" mean that it will be fragmented to a zillion of unmanageable pieces? :(

thismat 17y ago

As a G1 owner (which I do love), I would love to get my hands on an HTC Hero and hack it to work on T-Mobile....I've never wanted to switch carriers until I was disappointed with the MyTouch (forgot the HTC hardware it runs on). I think T-Mobile could of done so much better by bringing in the slightly higher priced HTC Hero and kept the G1 as their entry level model.