You're right about it not being a lagging indicator. I fell asleep after writing that, and realized something when I woke up... the paper takes those living be

You're right about it not being a lagging indicator. I fell asleep after writing that, and realized something when I woke up... the paper takes those living below $1.25/day and then estimates the consumption floor at 1/2 of that: Both methods of quantifying the floor suggest a consumption floor today that is about half of the international poverty line of $1.25 a day. This is probably close to the consumption of essential foods for those living around $1.25 a day. Then says, even though progress has been made in reducing the number of people living below that level, it has not increased the consumption floor -- which is from the table I mentioned before. But why would you expect to see an increase in consumption if their income is still below $1.25/day? It capped the income, and then somehow expected increased consumption? If I had to guess, the increase in the consumption floor is simply from those increasing their income but still below the $1.25/day (moving from say, $0.80/day to $1/day). The paper acknowledges a decrease in the number of people living below $1.25.. so I think it would be wrong to say no progress has been made in reducing poverty. As far as the paper's point about the consumption floor not increasing at the same rate as average consumption.. I think you could make that argument using income as well.. So I think the paper simply confuses the issue.