5 ms·

> or are people just unwilling to put up with the winters? This is slightly related; It may not be tomorrow, next week, or next decade, but eventually, there w

> or are people just unwilling to put up with the winters? This is slightly related; It may not be tomorrow, next week, or next decade, but eventually, there will come a time when climate change makes living in the west and/or southwest prohibitively (or increasingly) expensive. I'm not talking full abandonment often espoused by preppers, far from it. People will continue to live in the west, it's not going to disappear. However, it will become cheaper by orders of magnitude to live and do business elsewhere in the country. The biggest reason for this is that fresh water will be at a high premium. They're already experiencing drought issues in the west and southwest due to climate change, and I suspect places like Las Vegas will be the first to turn into a ghost town. Many people mistakenly believe that we can pump water around the country where its needed. While we have the technology, infrastructure and motivation to do it, we don't have the legal authority. You see, a few years ago, the Great Lake states and 2 Canadian Provinces signed the great lakes water compact. It's a (federally) legally binding contract which forbids exporting the water from the great lakes out of their respective states. In short, if you want cheap water, you're going to need to move back to the midwest/north east. I'm 1000% confident that the "rust belt" will rise again. It's only a matter of time.

khuey 12y ago
Desalination costs for human consumption in wealthy areas like coastal California are manageable. Especially since we're nowhere near the limits of residential conservation (single family homes will have to say goodbye to their green lawns). Climate change induced drought will increase costs of living in the coastal West, but it's not going to be orders of magnitude. Agriculture and inland cities like Las Vegas and Phoenix may very well be completely screwed though.
dasil003 12y ago
You might be right, but I wouldn't place any bets that the effects will be dramatic during my lifetime.
- Pxtl 12y ago
  Maybe not working lifetimes, but I expect my grandkids to ask me some hard questions about what the hell we were doing if I live long enough to see a retirement home.
  - a3n 12y ago
    So, what the hell are you doing? (Tongue barely in cheek.) I ask that, because I'm of an age where I and my cohort get asked that question. The question always strikes me as conveniently indignant, because it's easier to trace the results backward than forward. But mostly, I didn't even know I was doing anything. I thought I was doing reasonably good when I thought about it. I Got Milk (probably not so great an idea), I didn't eat grapes (for awhile), I recycled aluminum (for awhile), and ate from the food pyramid (terrible idea). It's an interesting question. What are we fucking up today? I don't think it's global warming, that's probably my generation's fault from years ago, but we didn't know, we thought it was going to be global cooling if not nuclear winter.
    - shanusmagnus 12y ago
      I love your question -- I think about this all the time. Here's my best guess about what we're fucking up today, or put a little differently, what we're doing that subsequent generations will look at with horror and disgust: eating animals. I'm a carnivore, but I wouldn't be if I had to confront the meat industry directly. Witnessing the stuff that goes on even in the small/medium-size farms that some of my friends run turns my stomach, to say nothing of the videos of animal torture that wash up on the internet from time to time. And as a cognitive scientist, the knowledge that animals, even 'primitive' ones like rats, unequivocally have emotions makes it worse. I live in dissonance until I can work up the guts/strength of character to go vegetarian. Generally speaking, I think a lot of questions about 'what are we fucking up' can be answered by rising living standards leading to an extension of empathy. The more secure you are in your own personal circumstances, the more you have mental room leftover to give a shit about others. In the not too recent past it was actually an okay thing to attempt to wipe out a civilization because they were inconveniencing you. Nasty stuff still happens, but it's generally behind the scenes. Nobody today thinks it's okay to butcher people just because they don't look like you. Even the most hardcore nutters in the States these days don't want to wipe out Mexicans or enslave black people. "Stay out of my neighborhood and leave my family alone" is about as bad as it gets in terms of position statements, which, considered in light of human history, is an astounding improvement. So barring the cataclysm, I think empathy will continue to be extended, and three generations from now the idea of systematically torturing billions of chickens so we can have cheap buffalo wings will be officially appalling to the majority.
Pxtl 12y ago
The problem is that global warming doesn't necessarily mean nicer winter here (Ontario). I mean, ask buffalonians about the lake-effect snow they saw last November, and scientists say that was caused by the warm lake.
- cjf4 12y ago
  As a Buffalonian, it was actually something of a communally binding event; people definitely took advantage of the opportunity to show their resilience and live the ethos of "the city of good neighbors." Speaking personally, it's the biting cold that starts about now and goes to about mid March that beats you down. But the weather's pretty good the other 9 months of the year.

khuey 12y ago

Desalination costs for human consumption in wealthy areas like coastal California are manageable. Especially since we're nowhere near the limits of residential conservation (single family homes will have to say goodbye to their green lawns). Climate change induced drought will increase costs of living in the coastal West, but it's not going to be orders of magnitude. Agriculture and inland cities like Las Vegas and Phoenix may very well be completely screwed though.

dasil003 12y ago

You might be right, but I wouldn't place any bets that the effects will be dramatic during my lifetime.

Pxtl 12y ago
Maybe not working lifetimes, but I expect my grandkids to ask me some hard questions about what the hell we were doing if I live long enough to see a retirement home.
- a3n 12y ago
  So, what the hell are you doing? (Tongue barely in cheek.) I ask that, because I'm of an age where I and my cohort get asked that question. The question always strikes me as conveniently indignant, because it's easier to trace the results backward than forward. But mostly, I didn't even know I was doing anything. I thought I was doing reasonably good when I thought about it. I Got Milk (probably not so great an idea), I didn't eat grapes (for awhile), I recycled aluminum (for awhile), and ate from the food pyramid (terrible idea). It's an interesting question. What are we fucking up today? I don't think it's global warming, that's probably my generation's fault from years ago, but we didn't know, we thought it was going to be global cooling if not nuclear winter.
  - shanusmagnus 12y ago
    I love your question -- I think about this all the time. Here's my best guess about what we're fucking up today, or put a little differently, what we're doing that subsequent generations will look at with horror and disgust: eating animals. I'm a carnivore, but I wouldn't be if I had to confront the meat industry directly. Witnessing the stuff that goes on even in the small/medium-size farms that some of my friends run turns my stomach, to say nothing of the videos of animal torture that wash up on the internet from time to time. And as a cognitive scientist, the knowledge that animals, even 'primitive' ones like rats, unequivocally have emotions makes it worse. I live in dissonance until I can work up the guts/strength of character to go vegetarian. Generally speaking, I think a lot of questions about 'what are we fucking up' can be answered by rising living standards leading to an extension of empathy. The more secure you are in your own personal circumstances, the more you have mental room leftover to give a shit about others. In the not too recent past it was actually an okay thing to attempt to wipe out a civilization because they were inconveniencing you. Nasty stuff still happens, but it's generally behind the scenes. Nobody today thinks it's okay to butcher people just because they don't look like you. Even the most hardcore nutters in the States these days don't want to wipe out Mexicans or enslave black people. "Stay out of my neighborhood and leave my family alone" is about as bad as it gets in terms of position statements, which, considered in light of human history, is an astounding improvement. So barring the cataclysm, I think empathy will continue to be extended, and three generations from now the idea of systematically torturing billions of chickens so we can have cheap buffalo wings will be officially appalling to the majority.

Pxtl 12y ago

The problem is that global warming doesn't necessarily mean nicer winter here (Ontario). I mean, ask buffalonians about the lake-effect snow they saw last November, and scientists say that was caused by the warm lake.

cjf4 12y ago
As a Buffalonian, it was actually something of a communally binding event; people definitely took advantage of the opportunity to show their resilience and live the ethos of "the city of good neighbors." Speaking personally, it's the biting cold that starts about now and goes to about mid March that beats you down. But the weather's pretty good the other 9 months of the year.