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> But there's no plan B. We can't fly the F-16 for another 25 years. Serious question: why not? Assuming the F16 is going to be updated with improved technolog

by wmkn 12y ago

> But there's no plan B. We can't fly the F-16 for another 25 years. Serious question: why not? Assuming the F16 is going to be updated with improved technology is any other country producing fighter jets that are going to overtake the capabilities of the F16 any time soon?

GVIrish 12y ago
The Chinese are pushing on a Gen 4.5ish fighter and the Russian Su-30 variants are nothing to sneeze at. The Eurofighter is a step up over the F-16 but doesn't totally eclipse it. However, the irony is that the F-35 probably won't be able to turn or accelerate with aircraft like the Su-30 or Eurofighter so in a dogfight it would be outclassed.
- tsotha 12y ago
  It's not designed to be a knife fighter. Stealth is supposed to give it a big BVR advantage. I used to think that was a big mistake, but lately I'm coming around to the idea that the oft-wrongly-heralded end of the dogfight is pretty much upon us. As missiles get smarter and (more importantly) integrate more sensors they get much harder to dodge. It's one thing to slip a single frequency semi-active radar homing missile or a four quadrant heat seeker in 1980. It's something quite different to shake a missile with IR, visual, and active EM sensors with the computing horsepower to integrate them all into a single predictive model. I was involved in IR missile development twenty years ago, and the consensus from the test pilots even then was the higher resolution sensors and extra smarts made modern (mid '90s) missiles almost impossible to shake once they locked on. That was just IR, too. From what I can tell going forward the last guy to get detected wins.
  - techdragon 12y ago
    It's going to wind up being how cheap can we make this drone to loiter with 1 missile attached? Cheap enough? Cool, just let the litter the sky, anyone dumb enough to try flying through will have to avoid detection or face instant death, so it will boil down to black stealth bombers only flying at night again, but even these will be drones.
    - GVIrish 12y ago
      Honestly I think the drone approach is where the smart money is. You could build many, many jet-engined drones that can provide air support over a wide area and would be fairly difficult for anyone to shoot down. The cost per unit would be low enough that you wouldn't particularly care if you lose a few here and there. I have to think some nation is going to pursue the swarm of drones idea and once it's proven in combat the whole air power paradigm will shift.
      - tsotha 12y ago
        Almost everyone I talk to agrees on this point and thinks the F-22/F-35 is the last generation of manned fighters (in the US, anyway). There's quite a bit of disagreement on the timeline, though.
  - GVIrish 12y ago
    True, but I don't know how stealthy it will be in practice while loaded up with external weapons and fuel tanks, not to mention the large profile fuselage that is has to accomodate the V/STOL capability. If it's radar evading abilities aren't that great with a combat loadout I have to wonder if the expense of designing the F-35 to be low observable will be worth it. Because, as you said, if AA missiles are becoming so advanced that dogfighting really is dead, having a quasi-stealth aircraft may not be the advantage that it was originally billed to be. Crazily enough, the program is having problems with heat melting off the stealth coatings, which is why the current fleet is not cleared for supersonic flight. My understanding is also that the sensor package is behind schedule. I think if the idea was a stealthy strike fighter for just the Air Force or just the Navy,we might have a pretty nice jet at this point, but the one plane to do everything approach just keeps bearing bad news.
tsotha 12y ago
You can do a lot without changing the air frame, but every successful aircraft comes to the end of its run eventually. The Russian PAK FA/T-50 is in pre-production and should significantly overmatch the F-16, not just with stealth but with supercruise and thrust vectoring.

by wmkn 12y ago

GVIrish 12y ago

The Chinese are pushing on a Gen 4.5ish fighter and the Russian Su-30 variants are nothing to sneeze at. The Eurofighter is a step up over the F-16 but doesn't totally eclipse it. However, the irony is that the F-35 probably won't be able to turn or accelerate with aircraft like the Su-30 or Eurofighter so in a dogfight it would be outclassed.

tsotha 12y ago
It's not designed to be a knife fighter. Stealth is supposed to give it a big BVR advantage. I used to think that was a big mistake, but lately I'm coming around to the idea that the oft-wrongly-heralded end of the dogfight is pretty much upon us. As missiles get smarter and (more importantly) integrate more sensors they get much harder to dodge. It's one thing to slip a single frequency semi-active radar homing missile or a four quadrant heat seeker in 1980. It's something quite different to shake a missile with IR, visual, and active EM sensors with the computing horsepower to integrate them all into a single predictive model. I was involved in IR missile development twenty years ago, and the consensus from the test pilots even then was the higher resolution sensors and extra smarts made modern (mid '90s) missiles almost impossible to shake once they locked on. That was just IR, too. From what I can tell going forward the last guy to get detected wins.
- techdragon 12y ago
  It's going to wind up being how cheap can we make this drone to loiter with 1 missile attached? Cheap enough? Cool, just let the litter the sky, anyone dumb enough to try flying through will have to avoid detection or face instant death, so it will boil down to black stealth bombers only flying at night again, but even these will be drones.
  - GVIrish 12y ago
    Honestly I think the drone approach is where the smart money is. You could build many, many jet-engined drones that can provide air support over a wide area and would be fairly difficult for anyone to shoot down. The cost per unit would be low enough that you wouldn't particularly care if you lose a few here and there. I have to think some nation is going to pursue the swarm of drones idea and once it's proven in combat the whole air power paradigm will shift.
    - tsotha 12y ago
      Almost everyone I talk to agrees on this point and thinks the F-22/F-35 is the last generation of manned fighters (in the US, anyway). There's quite a bit of disagreement on the timeline, though.
- GVIrish 12y ago
  True, but I don't know how stealthy it will be in practice while loaded up with external weapons and fuel tanks, not to mention the large profile fuselage that is has to accomodate the V/STOL capability. If it's radar evading abilities aren't that great with a combat loadout I have to wonder if the expense of designing the F-35 to be low observable will be worth it. Because, as you said, if AA missiles are becoming so advanced that dogfighting really is dead, having a quasi-stealth aircraft may not be the advantage that it was originally billed to be. Crazily enough, the program is having problems with heat melting off the stealth coatings, which is why the current fleet is not cleared for supersonic flight. My understanding is also that the sensor package is behind schedule. I think if the idea was a stealthy strike fighter for just the Air Force or just the Navy,we might have a pretty nice jet at this point, but the one plane to do everything approach just keeps bearing bad news.

tsotha 12y ago

You can do a lot without changing the air frame, but every successful aircraft comes to the end of its run eventually. The Russian PAK FA/T-50 is in pre-production and should significantly overmatch the F-16, not just with stealth but with supercruise and thrust vectoring.