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I submitted a very interesting Grantland article a few days ago that goes into exactly that (it failed getting HN attention, unfortunately). Just one look at th

I submitted a very interesting Grantland article a few days ago that goes into exactly that (it failed getting HN attention, unfortunately). Just one look at those lists of upcoming releases and you can see what is happening to Hollwood right now. http://grantland.com/features/2014-hollywood-blockbusters-franchises-box-office/ http://grantland.com/features/2014-hollywood-blockbusters-fr...

_broody 12y ago
Wow. I just read that article yesterday while browsing for some critiques of The Hobbit Part 3: Alfrid's Quest[sic], and I was nodding furiously all the way through. Brilliant, brilliant framing of the state of Hollywood. I was ensnared by franchise hype for the last couple of years, and seeing this film was the turning point for me to stop and reflect that not one of the dozen+ franchise movies I saw at the theater in this time managed to remotely live up to my expectations. I believe all is not lost, though. Other industries have shown the public eventually fatigues from such exhaustive, quality-less milking. Personally I've had my fill of being duped with franchise marketing, and next time I start thinking of wasting my money on one more of these ridiculous plot-less, CGI-bloated rehashes, I'll look for a decent original movie to wash the temptation off.
- tunap 12y ago
  What? No more time shifting reboot regurgitants for you? What if Kahn morphs into Kanye for hip-hop goodness? You're going to miss yet another weak Spider Man/Superman/Iron Man written to appeal to a 10yo(seemingly written by said 10yo), or the greatest Terminator peppered with digital homages to Arnold and paper thin plot lines. Perhaps 'Transformers VII: It Can't Get Any Worse' will entice you back. Think of the popcorn, man!
  - aswanson 12y ago
    Hilarious. As a comic fan as a kid, I always wanted to see my X-men, Avengers, Stark, et. al. on the big screen. I had no idea how nightmarish it would turn out. A lot of it has to do with growing up, but as I sit with my kids through these movies I can't help but think: Every one of these movies is nothing but a goddamned Mighty Morphin Power Rangers episode.
  - aswanson 12y ago
    Hilarious. As a comic fan as a kid, I always wanted to see my X-men, Avengers, Stark, et. al. on the big screen. I had no idea how nightmarish it would turn out. A lot of it has to do with growing up, but as I sit with my kids through these movies I can't help but think: Every one of these movies is nothing but a goddamned Mighty Morphin Power Rangers episode.
  - na85 12y ago
    The problem is that there's a certain segment of the population that will always pay to see CG explosions and the next hollywood starlet's TNA.
- aswanson 12y ago
  Hilarious. As a comic fan as a kid, I always wanted to see my X-men, Avengers, Stark, et. al. on the big screen. I had no idea how nightmarish it would turn out. A lot of it has to do with growing up, but as I sit with my kids through these movies I can't help but think: Every one of these movies is nothing but a goddamned Mighty Morphin Power Rangers episode.
- aswanson 12y ago
  Hilarious. As a comic fan as a kid, I always wanted to see my X-men, Avengers, Stark, et. al. on the big screen. I had no idea how nightmarish it would turn out. A lot of it has to do with growing up, but as I sit with my kids through these movies I can't help but think: Every one of these movies is nothing but a goddamned Mighty Morphin Power Rangers episode.
walterbell 12y ago
Excellent article, thanks. The list of software tools below is interesting. Has there been research into statistical analysis of "artistic attributes" of movies, as input to decision making algorithms that can augment Visicalc-inspired tools? "If you asked a bunch of executives without a creative bone in their bodies to craft a movie lineup for which the primary goal is to prevent failure, this is exactly what the defensive result would look like. It’s a bulwark that has been constructed using only those tools with which they feel comfortable — spreadsheets, P&L statements, demographic studies, risk-avoidance principles, and a calendar."
- bjterry 12y ago
  I interviewed for a financial analyst role with a film studio (not one of the majors) some five years ago. They had a predictive model for their movies which was built in Excel with VB macros and which had exhausted the dimensional limits of pre-2007 Excel. I'm not sure where you draw the line as far as what constitutes "artistic attributes" but it definitely included fields for such things as the star power of the actors and directors. It surely included extensive statistical analysis, but all ran inside a "Visicalc-inspired tool." Part of their pitch was that they were looking for someone with an investment banking background (i.e. me) because they operated their production studio the same way you operate a private equity fund. I ended up declining the next interview because "like a private equity fund" didn't seem to have the same cachet as working at an actual fund, which I then went on to never do.
  - walterbell 12y ago
    Thanks for the anecdote. Free-to-play mobile game makers (some from casino gaming) analyze the behavior of paying players and have been financially successful at using Facebook demographics to isolate and target those likely to pay for F2P games. Since Facebook also has access to Axciom offline purchases, it may be possible to correlate movie attendance with online and mobile activity profiles. If so, it will eventually be possible to segment incremental audiences who seek artistic films. Cineplex in Canada created VIP theaters with seat-side waiters, alcohol/food and selected films -- their attendance data will also be useful. http://stratechery.com/2014/dependent-digital-whales/ http://stratechery.com/2014/dependent-digital-whales/ Edit: fixed link, thanks mikeyouse
deleted 12y ago
[deleted]
philwelch 12y ago
I, for one, am eagerly anticipating the fallout from this. People will get tired of the franchises eventually and there will be a reckoning. 2020 will not look like what the studios have planned.
- santacluster 12y ago
  There's your fallout: http://www.theguardian.com/film/2015/jan/02/north-american-box-office-takings-drop http://www.theguardian.com/film/2015/jan/02/north-american-b...
  - cowardlydragon 12y ago
    Nope, the number the execs care about, and the reason all major blockbusters have zero dialogue and plot: Chinese revenues up 34%

_broody 12y ago

Wow. I just read that article yesterday while browsing for some critiques of The Hobbit Part 3: Alfrid's Quest[sic], and I was nodding furiously all the way through. Brilliant, brilliant framing of the state of Hollywood. I was ensnared by franchise hype for the last couple of years, and seeing this film was the turning point for me to stop and reflect that not one of the dozen+ franchise movies I saw at the theater in this time managed to remotely live up to my expectations. I believe all is not lost, though. Other industries have shown the public eventually fatigues from such exhaustive, quality-less milking. Personally I've had my fill of being duped with franchise marketing, and next time I start thinking of wasting my money on one more of these ridiculous plot-less, CGI-bloated rehashes, I'll look for a decent original movie to wash the temptation off.

tunap 12y ago
What? No more time shifting reboot regurgitants for you? What if Kahn morphs into Kanye for hip-hop goodness? You're going to miss yet another weak Spider Man/Superman/Iron Man written to appeal to a 10yo(seemingly written by said 10yo), or the greatest Terminator peppered with digital homages to Arnold and paper thin plot lines. Perhaps 'Transformers VII: It Can't Get Any Worse' will entice you back. Think of the popcorn, man!
- aswanson 12y ago
  Hilarious. As a comic fan as a kid, I always wanted to see my X-men, Avengers, Stark, et. al. on the big screen. I had no idea how nightmarish it would turn out. A lot of it has to do with growing up, but as I sit with my kids through these movies I can't help but think: Every one of these movies is nothing but a goddamned Mighty Morphin Power Rangers episode.
- aswanson 12y ago
  Hilarious. As a comic fan as a kid, I always wanted to see my X-men, Avengers, Stark, et. al. on the big screen. I had no idea how nightmarish it would turn out. A lot of it has to do with growing up, but as I sit with my kids through these movies I can't help but think: Every one of these movies is nothing but a goddamned Mighty Morphin Power Rangers episode.
- na85 12y ago
  The problem is that there's a certain segment of the population that will always pay to see CG explosions and the next hollywood starlet's TNA.
aswanson 12y ago
Hilarious. As a comic fan as a kid, I always wanted to see my X-men, Avengers, Stark, et. al. on the big screen. I had no idea how nightmarish it would turn out. A lot of it has to do with growing up, but as I sit with my kids through these movies I can't help but think: Every one of these movies is nothing but a goddamned Mighty Morphin Power Rangers episode.
aswanson 12y ago
Hilarious. As a comic fan as a kid, I always wanted to see my X-men, Avengers, Stark, et. al. on the big screen. I had no idea how nightmarish it would turn out. A lot of it has to do with growing up, but as I sit with my kids through these movies I can't help but think: Every one of these movies is nothing but a goddamned Mighty Morphin Power Rangers episode.

walterbell 12y ago

Excellent article, thanks. The list of software tools below is interesting. Has there been research into statistical analysis of "artistic attributes" of movies, as input to decision making algorithms that can augment Visicalc-inspired tools? "If you asked a bunch of executives without a creative bone in their bodies to craft a movie lineup for which the primary goal is to prevent failure, this is exactly what the defensive result would look like. It’s a bulwark that has been constructed using only those tools with which they feel comfortable — spreadsheets, P&L statements, demographic studies, risk-avoidance principles, and a calendar."

bjterry 12y ago
I interviewed for a financial analyst role with a film studio (not one of the majors) some five years ago. They had a predictive model for their movies which was built in Excel with VB macros and which had exhausted the dimensional limits of pre-2007 Excel. I'm not sure where you draw the line as far as what constitutes "artistic attributes" but it definitely included fields for such things as the star power of the actors and directors. It surely included extensive statistical analysis, but all ran inside a "Visicalc-inspired tool." Part of their pitch was that they were looking for someone with an investment banking background (i.e. me) because they operated their production studio the same way you operate a private equity fund. I ended up declining the next interview because "like a private equity fund" didn't seem to have the same cachet as working at an actual fund, which I then went on to never do.
- walterbell 12y ago
  Thanks for the anecdote. Free-to-play mobile game makers (some from casino gaming) analyze the behavior of paying players and have been financially successful at using Facebook demographics to isolate and target those likely to pay for F2P games. Since Facebook also has access to Axciom offline purchases, it may be possible to correlate movie attendance with online and mobile activity profiles. If so, it will eventually be possible to segment incremental audiences who seek artistic films. Cineplex in Canada created VIP theaters with seat-side waiters, alcohol/food and selected films -- their attendance data will also be useful. http://stratechery.com/2014/dependent-digital-whales/ http://stratechery.com/2014/dependent-digital-whales/ Edit: fixed link, thanks mikeyouse

deleted 12y ago

[deleted]

philwelch 12y ago

I, for one, am eagerly anticipating the fallout from this. People will get tired of the franchises eventually and there will be a reckoning. 2020 will not look like what the studios have planned.

santacluster 12y ago
There's your fallout: http://www.theguardian.com/film/2015/jan/02/north-american-box-office-takings-drop http://www.theguardian.com/film/2015/jan/02/north-american-b...
- cowardlydragon 12y ago
  Nope, the number the execs care about, and the reason all major blockbusters have zero dialogue and plot: Chinese revenues up 34%